Predictions › United Kingdom › Southampton vs Bristol City

ChampionshipSat 12 Sept, 15:00 United Kingdom time

Southampton vs Bristol City prediction

St. Mary's Stadium

SouthamptonHome

1.93 : 1.09

expected goals

Bristol CityAway

56%Southampton

23%Draw

20%Bristol City

Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals

2/9

Quick answer

Our prediction for Southampton vs Bristol City is Southampton to win, with a 56% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 2/9.

Prediction: Southampton to win
Chance: 56%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Southampton 1.9, Bristol City 1.1
Best bet: Over 1.5 goals at 2/9
Both teams to score: 57%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals

81% chanceFair price 2/92 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Southampton to win and Over 2.5

38% chanceFair price 8/51 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Southampton 56%, the draw 23% and Bristol City 20%. The bookmakers agree and make Southampton the favourite at 4/6.
2
Recent form
Southampton took 8 points from their last 5 games and Bristol City took 10 from 5. Bristol City come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Southampton won 8 of their last 11 games at home. Bristol City won 4 of their last 11 on the road.
4
Goals
Southampton score 2.1 goals a game and let in 1.1. Bristol City score 1.1 and let in 1.4. Over 2.5 goals landed in 14 of Southampton games and 10 of Bristol City games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, Southampton won 0 and Bristol City won 1 with 1 draw. The last one ended Southampton 2, Bristol City 2.
6
The safest bet
Over 1.5 goals has a 81% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

Match preview

Southampton vs Bristol City: Southampton are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Southampton host Bristol City in the Championship on Sat 12 Sept, 15:00 at St. Mary's Stadium. Our prediction for Southampton vs Bristol City is Southampton to win, with a 56% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 2/9.

Southampton form

Southampton have 13 wins, 5 draws and 2 losses in their last 20 games, with 43 goals scored and 21 conceded. At home they have 8 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss from 11. Their last 5 results read W, D, D, W, L, newest first.

Bristol City form

Bristol City have 7 wins, 4 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 23 goals scored and 27 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, D, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Southampton won 0, Bristol City won 1 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Southampton 2, Bristol City 2.

Our call

We expect Southampton to score about 1.9 goals and Bristol City about 1.1. That points to Southampton to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 2/9. Our bold bet is Southampton to win and Over 2.5 at 8/5.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Southampton	Bristol City
Games played	20	20
Wins	13	7
Draws	5	4
Losses	2	9
Goals scored	43	23
Goals conceded	21	27
Scored per game	2.1	1.1
Conceded per game	1.1	1.4
Home record	8W 2D 1L	3W 0D 6L
Away record	5W 3D 1L	4W 4D 3L
Clean sheets	25%	15%
Both teams scored	75%	55%
Over 2.5 goals	70%	50%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Southampton to win	56%	4/5	4/6	-4.7%
A Draw	23%	10/3	10/3	-2.4%
Bristol City to win	20%	4/1	7/2	-8.2%
Over 2.5 goals	59%	4/6	4/7	-6.0%
Under 2.5 goals	41%	7/5	11/8	-4.1%
Southampton -0.5	57%	8/11	8/13	-7.7%
Bristol City +0.5	43%	11/8	11/10	-7.1%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	81%	2/9
Over 2.5 goals	58%	8/11
Over 3.5 goals	36%	9/5
Both teams to score	57%	8/11
Southampton or Draw	80%	1/4
Bristol City or Draw	44%	5/4
Southampton to win and Over 2.5	38%	8/5
Bristol City to win and Over 2.5	13%	7/1
Southampton clean sheet	34%	2/1
Bristol City clean sheet	15%	6/1

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-110.9%

2-19.9%

2-09.1%

1-08.8%

3-16.4%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Southampton vs Bristol City?

Our prediction for Southampton vs Bristol City is Southampton to win, with a 56% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 2/9.

What is the score prediction for Southampton vs Bristol City?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 2-0. We expect Southampton to score 1.9 goals and Bristol City 1.1.

Will both teams score in Southampton vs Bristol City?

Both teams to score has a 57% chance. Both sides scored in 15 of Southampton last 20 games and 11 of Bristol City last 20.

How are Southampton playing?

How are Bristol City playing?

What happened when Southampton and Bristol City last met?

It ended Southampton 2, Bristol City 2. In the last 2 meetings Southampton won 0 and Bristol City won 1.

What is the best bet for Southampton vs Bristol City?

Over 1.5 goals at 2/9, with a 81% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.