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Predictions › Primeira Liga › Sporting CP vs Arouca
Primeira LigaSat 19 Sept, 19:30 UTC

Sporting CP vs Arouca prediction

Estádio José Alvalade

Sporting CPHome
2.32 : 0.80
expected goals
AroucaAway
71%Sporting
18%Draw
11%Arouca
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.22

Quick answer

Our prediction for Sporting CP vs Arouca is Sporting CP to win, with a 71% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.22.

Prediction
Sporting CP to win
Chance
71%
Most likely score
2-0
Expected goals
Sporting CP 2.3, Arouca 0.8
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.22
Both teams to score
50%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
82% chanceFair price 1.222 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Sporting CP to win and both score
31% chanceFair price 3.231 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Sporting CP 71%, the draw 18% and Arouca 11%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Sporting CP took 15 points from their last 5 games and Arouca took 10 from 5. Sporting CP come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Sporting CP won 8 of their last 11 games at home. Arouca won 4 of their last 11 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Sporting CP score 2.5 goals a game and let in 1.1. Arouca score 1.7 and let in 1.1. Over 2.5 goals landed in 15 of Sporting CP games and 13 of Arouca games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 1 meeting, Sporting CP won 1 and Arouca won 0 with 0 draws. The last one ended Arouca 1, Sporting CP 2.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 82% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

Match preview

Sporting CP vs Arouca: Sporting CP are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Sporting CP host Arouca in the Primeira Liga on Sat 19 Sept, 19:30 at Estádio José Alvalade. Our prediction for Sporting CP vs Arouca is Sporting CP to win, with a 71% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.22.

Sporting CP form

Sporting CP have 12 wins, 5 draws and 3 losses in their last 20 games, with 49 goals scored and 22 conceded. At home they have 8 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, W, W, newest first.

Arouca form

Arouca have 11 wins, 2 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 34 goals scored and 23 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 1 draw and 6 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read D, W, L, W, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Sporting CP won 1, Arouca won 0 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Arouca 1, Sporting CP 2.

Our call

We expect Sporting CP to score about 2.3 goals and Arouca about 0.8. That points to Sporting CP to win, with 2-0 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.22. Our bold bet is Sporting CP to win and both score at 3.23.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

SportingArouca
Games played2020
Wins1211
Draws52
Losses37
Goals scored4934
Goals conceded2223
Scored per game2.51.7
Conceded per game1.11.1
Home record8W 1D 2L7W 1D 1L
Away record4W 4D 1L4W 1D 6L
Clean sheets30%35%
Both teams scored60%50%
Over 2.5 goals75%65%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals82%1.22
Over 2.5 goals60%1.66
Over 3.5 goals38%2.63
Both teams to score50%2.00
Sporting CP or Draw89%1.12
Arouca or Draw29%3.46
Sporting CP to win and Over 2.549%2.02
Arouca to win and Over 2.56%16.08
Sporting CP clean sheet45%2.22
Arouca clean sheet10%10.22

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

2-011.9%
1-09.8%
2-19.5%
3-09.2%
1-18.7%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Sporting CP vs Arouca?

Our prediction for Sporting CP vs Arouca is Sporting CP to win, with a 71% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.22.

What is the score prediction for Sporting CP vs Arouca?

2-0 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 2-1. We expect Sporting CP to score 2.3 goals and Arouca 0.8.

Will both teams score in Sporting CP vs Arouca?

Both teams to score has a 50% chance. Both sides scored in 12 of Sporting CP last 20 games and 10 of Arouca last 20.

How are Sporting CP playing?

Sporting CP have 12 wins, 5 draws and 3 losses in their last 20 games, with 49 goals scored and 22 conceded. At home they have 8 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, W, W, newest first.

How are Arouca playing?

Arouca have 11 wins, 2 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 34 goals scored and 23 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 1 draw and 6 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read D, W, L, W, W, newest first.

What happened when Sporting CP and Arouca last met?

It ended Arouca 1, Sporting CP 2. In the last 1 meeting Sporting CP won 1 and Arouca won 0.

What is the best bet for Sporting CP vs Arouca?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.22, with a 82% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.