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Predictions › United Kingdom › Swansea City vs Burnley
ChampionshipSat 12 Sept, 15:00 United Kingdom time

Swansea City vs Burnley prediction

Swansea.com Stadium

Swansea CityHome
1.57 : 1.12
expected goals
BurnleyAway
47%Swansea
27%Draw
27%Burnley
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1/3

Quick answer

Our prediction for Swansea City vs Burnley is Swansea City to win, with a 47% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1/3.

Prediction
Swansea City to win
Chance
47%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Swansea City 1.6, Burnley 1.1
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1/3
Both teams to score
54%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
76% chanceFair price 1/32 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Swansea City to win and Over 2.5
29% chanceFair price 5/21 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Swansea City 47%, the draw 27% and Burnley 27%. The bookmakers agree and make Swansea City the favourite at 11/10.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Swansea City took 8 points from their last 5 games and Burnley took 3 from 5. Swansea City come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Swansea City won 3 of their last 10 games at home. Burnley won 0 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Swansea City score 1.3 goals a game and let in 1.3. Burnley score 0.9 and let in 1.9. Over 2.5 goals landed in 11 of Swansea City games and 9 of Burnley games in that run.

  5. 5
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 76% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

Match preview

Swansea City vs Burnley: Swansea City are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Swansea City host Burnley in the Championship on Sat 12 Sept, 15:00 at Swansea.com Stadium. Our prediction for Swansea City vs Burnley is Swansea City to win, with a 47% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1/3.

Swansea City form

Swansea City have 8 wins, 6 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 26 goals scored and 25 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, D, W, W, D, newest first.

Burnley form

Burnley have 0 wins, 9 draws and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 18 goals scored and 38 conceded. Away from home they have 0 wins, 3 draws and 7 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, L, D, L, D, newest first.

Our call

We expect Swansea City to score about 1.6 goals and Burnley about 1.1. That points to Swansea City to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1/3. Our bold bet is Swansea City to win and Over 2.5 at 5/2.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

SwanseaBurnley
Games played2020
Wins80
Draws69
Losses611
Goals scored2618
Goals conceded2538
Scored per game1.30.9
Conceded per game1.31.9
Home record3W 4D 3L0W 6D 4L
Away record5W 2D 3L0W 3D 7L
Clean sheets30%10%
Both teams scored50%70%
Over 2.5 goals55%45%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
Swansea City to win47%11/1011/10-1.5%
A Draw27%11/413/5-4.4%
Burnley to win27%11/45/2-8.5%
Over 2.5 goals50%Evens5/6-5.6%
Under 2.5 goals50%Evens10/11-5.5%
Swansea City -0.547%11/10Evens-6.7%
Burnley +0.553%10/118/11-7.1%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals76%1/3
Over 2.5 goals50%Evens
Over 3.5 goals28%5/2
Both teams to score54%5/6
Swansea City or Draw73%4/11
Burnley or Draw53%10/11
Swansea City to win and Over 2.529%5/2
Burnley to win and Over 2.515%11/2
Swansea City clean sheet33%85/40
Burnley clean sheet21%4/1

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-112.7%
1-09.9%
2-19.4%
2-08.3%
0-07.5%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Swansea City vs Burnley?

Our prediction for Swansea City vs Burnley is Swansea City to win, with a 47% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1/3.

What is the score prediction for Swansea City vs Burnley?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 2-1. We expect Swansea City to score 1.6 goals and Burnley 1.1.

Will both teams score in Swansea City vs Burnley?

Both teams to score has a 54% chance. Both sides scored in 10 of Swansea City last 20 games and 14 of Burnley last 20.

How are Swansea City playing?

Swansea City have 8 wins, 6 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 26 goals scored and 25 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, D, W, W, D, newest first.

How are Burnley playing?

Burnley have 0 wins, 9 draws and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 18 goals scored and 38 conceded. Away from home they have 0 wins, 3 draws and 7 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, L, D, L, D, newest first.

What is the best bet for Swansea City vs Burnley?

Over 1.5 goals at 1/3, with a 76% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.