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Liga MXSat 12 Sept, 23:05 UTC

Toluca vs Atlas prediction

Estadio Nemesio Díez Riega

TolucaHome

1.99 : 0.93

expected goals

AtlasAway

61%Toluca

22%Draw

16%Atlas

Eagle safe pickToluca or Draw

1.20

Quick answer

Our prediction for Toluca vs Atlas is Toluca to win, with a 61% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is Toluca or Draw at 1.20.

Prediction: Toluca to win
Chance: 61%
Most likely score: 2-0
Expected goals: Toluca 2.0, Atlas 0.9
Best bet: Toluca or Draw at 1.20
Both teams to score: 53%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Toluca or Draw

84% chanceFair price 1.202 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Toluca to win and Over 2.5

41% chanceFair price 2.471 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Toluca 61%, the draw 22% and Atlas 16%. The bookmakers agree and make Toluca the favourite at 1.48.
2
Recent form
Toluca took 10 points from their last 5 games and Atlas took 7 from 5. Toluca come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Toluca won 6 of their last 10 games at home. Atlas won 5 of their last 9 on the road.
4
Goals
Toluca score 1.8 goals a game and let in 1.1. Atlas score 1.1 and let in 1.2. Over 2.5 goals landed in 10 of Toluca games and 8 of Atlas games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, Toluca won 0 and Atlas won 0 with 2 draws. The last one ended Toluca 1, Atlas 1.
6
The safest bet
Toluca or Draw has a 84% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

Match preview

Toluca vs Atlas: Toluca are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Toluca host Atlas in the Liga MX on Sat 12 Sept, 23:05 at Estadio Nemesio Díez Riega. Our prediction for Toluca vs Atlas is Toluca to win, with a 61% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is Toluca or Draw at 1.20.

Toluca form

Toluca have 10 wins, 4 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 35 goals scored and 21 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, D, W, L, newest first.

Atlas form

Atlas have 8 wins, 5 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 22 goals scored and 24 conceded. Away from home they have 5 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read D, L, W, W, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Toluca won 0, Atlas won 0 and 2 games ended level. Last time out it finished Toluca 1, Atlas 1.

Our call

We expect Toluca to score about 2.0 goals and Atlas about 0.9. That points to Toluca to win, with 2-0 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Toluca or Draw at 1.20. Our bold bet is Toluca to win and Over 2.5 at 2.47.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Toluca	Atlas
Games played	20	20
Wins	10	8
Draws	4	5
Losses	6	7
Goals scored	35	22
Goals conceded	21	24
Scored per game	1.8	1.1
Conceded per game	1.1	1.2
Home record	6W 2D 2L	3W 4D 4L
Away record	4W 2D 4L	5W 1D 3L
Clean sheets	30%	35%
Both teams scored	55%	50%
Over 2.5 goals	50%	40%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Toluca to win	61%	1.63	1.48	-9.5%
A Draw	22%	4.48	4.40	-1.9%
Atlas to win	16%	6.10	6.00	-1.6%
Over 2.5 goals	58%	1.72	1.57	-8.9%
Under 2.5 goals	42%	2.38	2.25	-5.5%
Toluca -1.5	40%	2.47	2.20	-11.0%
Atlas +1.5	60%	1.68	1.57	-6.5%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	79%	1.26
Over 2.5 goals	56%	1.79
Over 3.5 goals	33%	2.99
Both teams to score	53%	1.89
Toluca or Draw	84%	1.20
Atlas or Draw	39%	2.58
Toluca to win and Over 2.5	41%	2.47
Atlas to win and Over 2.5	10%	10.39
Toluca clean sheet	39%	2.54
Atlas clean sheet	14%	7.29

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

2-010.6%

1-110.6%

1-010.1%

2-19.9%

3-07.0%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Toluca vs Atlas?

Our prediction for Toluca vs Atlas is Toluca to win, with a 61% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is Toluca or Draw at 1.20.

What is the score prediction for Toluca vs Atlas?

2-0 is the most likely score, followed by 1-1 and 1-0. We expect Toluca to score 2.0 goals and Atlas 0.9.

Will both teams score in Toluca vs Atlas?

Both teams to score has a 53% chance. Both sides scored in 11 of Toluca last 20 games and 10 of Atlas last 20.

How are Toluca playing?

How are Atlas playing?

What happened when Toluca and Atlas last met?

It ended Toluca 1, Atlas 1. In the last 2 meetings Toluca won 0 and Atlas won 0.

What is the best bet for Toluca vs Atlas?

Toluca or Draw at 1.20, with a 84% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.