EagleEyeOdds eagleEagleEyeOddsToday's picks
PredictionsKenyaNigeriaGhanaSouth AfricaUnited KingdomUnited StatesIndiaNewsOur recordResponsible gambling
Predictions › Liga MX › Toluca vs Santos
Liga MXMon 21 Sept, 00:00 UTC

Toluca vs Santos prediction

Estadio Nemesio Díez Riega

TolucaHome
3.00 : 0.86
expected goals
SantosAway
80%Toluca
13%Draw
7%Santos
Eagle safe pickToluca to win
1.25

Quick answer

Our prediction for Toluca vs Santos is Toluca to win, with a 80% chance. The most likely score is 3-0. Our best bet is Toluca to win at 1.25.

Prediction
Toluca to win
Chance
80%
Most likely score
3-0
Expected goals
Toluca 3.0, Santos 0.9
Best bet
Toluca to win at 1.25
Both teams to score
55%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Toluca to win
80% chanceFair price 1.252 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Toluca to win and both score
40% chanceFair price 2.511 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Toluca 80%, the draw 13% and Santos 7%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Toluca took 10 points from their last 5 games and Santos took 1 from 5. Toluca come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Toluca won 6 of their last 10 games at home. Santos won 1 of their last 11 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Toluca score 1.8 goals a game and let in 1.1. Santos score 1.0 and let in 1.9. Over 2.5 goals landed in 10 of Toluca games and 13 of Santos games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 1 meeting, Toluca won 1 and Santos won 0 with 0 draws. The last one ended Toluca 3, Santos 1.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Toluca to win has a 80% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

Match preview

Toluca vs Santos: Toluca are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Toluca host Santos in the Liga MX on Mon 21 Sept, 00:00 at Estadio Nemesio Díez Riega. Our prediction for Toluca vs Santos is Toluca to win, with a 80% chance. The most likely score is 3-0. Our best bet is Toluca to win at 1.25.

Toluca form

Toluca have 10 wins, 4 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 35 goals scored and 21 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, D, W, L, newest first.

Santos form

Santos have 3 wins, 3 draws and 14 losses in their last 20 games, with 20 goals scored and 38 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 1 draw and 9 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, D, L, L, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Toluca won 1, Santos won 0 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Toluca 3, Santos 1.

Our call

We expect Toluca to score about 3.0 goals and Santos about 0.9. That points to Toluca to win, with 3-0 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Toluca to win at 1.25. Our bold bet is Toluca to win and both score at 2.51.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

TolucaSantos
Games played2020
Wins103
Draws43
Losses614
Goals scored3520
Goals conceded2138
Scored per game1.81.0
Conceded per game1.11.9
Home record6W 2D 2L2W 2D 5L
Away record4W 2D 4L1W 1D 9L
Clean sheets30%10%
Both teams scored55%55%
Over 2.5 goals50%65%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals90%1.11
Over 2.5 goals74%1.35
Over 3.5 goals54%1.86
Both teams to score55%1.82
Toluca or Draw93%1.08
Santos or Draw20%4.97
Toluca to win and Over 2.564%1.55
Santos to win and Over 2.55%20.05
Toluca clean sheet42%2.36
Santos clean sheet5%20.09

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

3-09.5%
2-09.5%
3-18.2%
2-18.2%
4-07.1%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Toluca vs Santos?

Our prediction for Toluca vs Santos is Toluca to win, with a 80% chance. The most likely score is 3-0. Our best bet is Toluca to win at 1.25.

What is the score prediction for Toluca vs Santos?

3-0 is the most likely score, followed by 2-0 and 3-1. We expect Toluca to score 3.0 goals and Santos 0.9.

Will both teams score in Toluca vs Santos?

Both teams to score has a 55% chance. Both sides scored in 11 of Toluca last 20 games and 11 of Santos last 20.

How are Toluca playing?

Toluca have 10 wins, 4 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 35 goals scored and 21 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, D, W, L, newest first.

How are Santos playing?

Santos have 3 wins, 3 draws and 14 losses in their last 20 games, with 20 goals scored and 38 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 1 draw and 9 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, D, L, L, L, newest first.

What happened when Toluca and Santos last met?

It ended Toluca 3, Santos 1. In the last 1 meeting Toluca won 1 and Santos won 0.

What is the best bet for Toluca vs Santos?

Toluca to win at 1.25, with a 80% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.