Toronto Maple Leafs vs Montreal Canadiens prediction

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 5 goals

79% chanceFair price -3762 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Maple Leafs to win

39% chanceFair price +1541 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1. 1
   What our numbers say

   The model gives Montreal Canadiens 61% and Toronto Maple Leafs 39%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

2. 2
   Recent form

   Montreal Canadiens won 1 of their last 5 and Toronto Maple Leafs won 0 of their last 5. Montreal Canadiens come in with the better run.

3. 3
   Home and away

   Montreal Canadiens won 2 of their last 8 games at home. Toronto Maple Leafs won 3 of their last 12 on the road.

4. 4
   Scoring

   Montreal Canadiens score 2.8 goals a game and let in 3.0. Toronto Maple Leafs score 2.8 and let in 4.2. Their recent games average 5.8 and 7.0 goals in total.

5. 5
   Head to head

   In the last 5 meetings, Montreal Canadiens won 4 and Toronto Maple Leafs won 1. The last one ended Montreal Canadiens 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 1.

6. 6
   The safest bet

   Over 5 goals has a 79% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

Note: W is a win and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Spread and total at every line

Note: A spread gives one team a head start. Canadiens +3.5 wins if Canadiens win or lose by 3 or fewer. If the result lands exactly on the line, your stake comes back.