EagleEyeOdds eagleEagleEyeOddsToday's picks
PredictionsKenyaNigeriaGhanaSouth AfricaUnited KingdomUnited StatesIndiaNewsOur recordResponsible gambling
Predictions › United Kingdom › Tottenham Hotspur vs Aston Villa
Premier LeagueSat 19 Sept, 12:30 United Kingdom time

Tottenham Hotspur vs Aston Villa prediction

Tottenham Hotspur Stadium

Tottenham HotspurHome
1.50 : 1.25
expected goals
Aston VillaAway
42%Spurs
27%Draw
31%Aston Villa
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
3/10

Quick answer

Our prediction for Tottenham Hotspur vs Aston Villa is Tottenham Hotspur to win, with a 42% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 3/10.

Prediction
Tottenham Hotspur to win
Chance
42%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Tottenham Hotspur 1.5, Aston Villa 1.3
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 3/10
Both teams to score
56%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
77% chanceFair price 3/102 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Aston Villa to win
31% chancePrice 13/5+11.8% value2 units

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Tottenham Hotspur 42%, the draw 27% and Aston Villa 31%. The bookmakers agree and make Tottenham Hotspur the favourite at Evens.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Tottenham Hotspur took 7 points from their last 5 games and Aston Villa took 7 from 5. Both sides come in with a similar run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Tottenham Hotspur won 3 of their last 10 games at home. Aston Villa won 5 of their last 12 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Tottenham Hotspur score 1.1 goals a game and let in 1.9. Aston Villa score 1.9 and let in 1.2. Over 2.5 goals landed in 12 of Tottenham Hotspur games and 12 of Aston Villa games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Tottenham Hotspur won 1 and Aston Villa won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended Aston Villa 1, Tottenham Hotspur 2.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 77% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

Match preview

Tottenham Hotspur vs Aston Villa: Tottenham Hotspur shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Tottenham Hotspur host Aston Villa in the Premier League on Sat 19 Sept, 12:30 at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. Our prediction for Tottenham Hotspur vs Aston Villa is Tottenham Hotspur to win, with a 42% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 3/10.

Tottenham Hotspur form

Tottenham Hotspur have 5 wins, 4 draws and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 23 goals scored and 37 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, L, W, L, W, newest first.

Aston Villa form

Aston Villa have 11 wins, 3 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 37 goals scored and 24 conceded. Away from home they have 5 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses from 12. Their last 5 results read W, D, L, L, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Tottenham Hotspur won 1, Aston Villa won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Aston Villa 1, Tottenham Hotspur 2.

Our call

We expect Tottenham Hotspur to score about 1.5 goals and Aston Villa about 1.3. That points to Tottenham Hotspur to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 3/10. Our bold bet is Aston Villa to win at 13/5.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

SpursAston Villa
Games played2020
Wins511
Draws43
Losses116
Goals scored2337
Goals conceded3724
Scored per game1.11.9
Conceded per game1.91.2
Home record3W 2D 5L6W 0D 2L
Away record2W 2D 6L5W 3D 4L
Clean sheets15%35%
Both teams scored60%45%
Over 2.5 goals60%60%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
Tottenham Hotspur to win42%11/8Evens-15.6%
A Draw27%11/413/5-2.4%
Aston Villa to win31%11/513/5+11.8%
Over 2.5 goals53%10/118/11-7.0%
Under 2.5 goals47%11/1021/20-4.5%
Tottenham Hotspur -0.546%6/510/11-11.6%
Aston Villa +0.554%5/64/5-5.1%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals77%3/10
Over 2.5 goals52%10/11
Over 3.5 goals30%12/5
Both teams to score56%4/5
Tottenham Hotspur or Draw69%4/9
Aston Villa or Draw58%8/11
Tottenham Hotspur to win and Over 2.526%11/4
Aston Villa to win and Over 2.519%9/2
Tottenham Hotspur clean sheet29%5/2
Aston Villa clean sheet22%7/2

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-112.7%
2-19.0%
1-08.8%
1-27.5%
0-17.3%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Tottenham Hotspur vs Aston Villa?

Our prediction for Tottenham Hotspur vs Aston Villa is Tottenham Hotspur to win, with a 42% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 3/10.

What is the score prediction for Tottenham Hotspur vs Aston Villa?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 1-0. We expect Tottenham Hotspur to score 1.5 goals and Aston Villa 1.3.

Will both teams score in Tottenham Hotspur vs Aston Villa?

Both teams to score has a 56% chance. Both sides scored in 12 of Tottenham Hotspur last 20 games and 9 of Aston Villa last 20.

How are Tottenham Hotspur playing?

Tottenham Hotspur have 5 wins, 4 draws and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 23 goals scored and 37 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, L, W, L, W, newest first.

How are Aston Villa playing?

Aston Villa have 11 wins, 3 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 37 goals scored and 24 conceded. Away from home they have 5 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses from 12. Their last 5 results read W, D, L, L, W, newest first.

What happened when Tottenham Hotspur and Aston Villa last met?

It ended Aston Villa 1, Tottenham Hotspur 2. In the last 2 meetings Tottenham Hotspur won 1 and Aston Villa won 1.

What is the best bet for Tottenham Hotspur vs Aston Villa?

Over 1.5 goals at 3/10, with a 77% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.