Predictions › Ligue 1 › Toulouse vs Le Havre AC

Ligue 1Sat 19 Sept, 18:45 UTC

Toulouse vs Le Havre AC prediction

Stadium Municipal de Toulouse

ToulouseHome

1.43 : 1.00

expected goals

Le Havre ACAway

46%Toulouse

28%Draw

26%Le Havre AC

Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals

1.29

Quick answer

Our prediction for Toulouse vs Le Havre AC is Toulouse to win, with a 46% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.29.

Prediction: Toulouse to win
Chance: 46%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Toulouse 1.4, Le Havre AC 1.0
Best bet: Under 3.5 goals at 1.29
Both teams to score: 49%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals

77% chanceFair price 1.292 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Le Havre AC to win

26% chancePrice 4.10+4.8% value2 units

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Toulouse 46%, the draw 28% and Le Havre AC 26%. The bookmakers agree and make Toulouse the favourite at 1.83.
2
Recent form
Toulouse took 7 points from their last 5 games and Le Havre AC took 4 from 5. Toulouse come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Toulouse won 3 of their last 11 games at home. Le Havre AC won 1 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
Toulouse score 1.3 goals a game and let in 1.6. Le Havre AC score 0.9 and let in 1.3. Over 2.5 goals landed in 11 of Toulouse games and 5 of Le Havre AC games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, Toulouse won 0 and Le Havre AC won 1 with 1 draw. The last one ended Le Havre AC 2, Toulouse 1.
6
The safest bet
Under 3.5 goals has a 77% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

Match preview

Toulouse vs Le Havre AC: Toulouse are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Toulouse host Le Havre AC in the Ligue 1 on Sat 19 Sept, 18:45 at Stadium Municipal de Toulouse. Our prediction for Toulouse vs Le Havre AC is Toulouse to win, with a 46% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.29.

Toulouse form

Toulouse have 6 wins, 4 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 25 goals scored and 32 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, D, L, W, W, newest first.

Le Havre AC form

Le Havre AC have 3 wins, 9 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 19 goals scored and 25 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 5 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, D, L, W, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Toulouse won 0, Le Havre AC won 1 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Le Havre AC 2, Toulouse 1.

Our call

We expect Toulouse to score about 1.4 goals and Le Havre AC about 1.0. That points to Toulouse to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.29. Our bold bet is Le Havre AC to win at 4.10.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Toulouse	Le Havre AC
Games played	20	20
Wins	6	3
Draws	4	9
Losses	10	8
Goals scored	25	19
Goals conceded	32	25
Scored per game	1.3	0.9
Conceded per game	1.6	1.3
Home record	3W 3D 5L	2W 4D 4L
Away record	3W 1D 5L	1W 5D 4L
Clean sheets	15%	15%
Both teams scored	50%	55%
Over 2.5 goals	55%	25%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Toulouse to win	46%	2.16	1.83	-15.3%
A Draw	28%	3.54	3.60	+1.6%
Le Havre AC to win	26%	3.91	4.10	+4.8%
Over 2.5 goals	47%	2.12	1.91	-10.1%
Under 2.5 goals	53%	1.89	1.80	-4.7%
Toulouse -0.5	50%	2.00	1.74	-12.7%
Le Havre AC +0.5	50%	2.00	1.87	-6.7%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	70%	1.42
Over 2.5 goals	44%	2.29
Over 3.5 goals	23%	4.42
Both teams to score	49%	2.05
Toulouse or Draw	74%	1.34
Le Havre AC or Draw	54%	1.86
Toulouse to win and Over 2.5	25%	3.95
Le Havre AC to win and Over 2.5	13%	7.63
Toulouse clean sheet	37%	2.71
Le Havre AC clean sheet	24%	4.17

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.4%

1-011.9%

0-09.6%

2-09.0%

2-19.0%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Toulouse vs Le Havre AC?

Our prediction for Toulouse vs Le Havre AC is Toulouse to win, with a 46% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.29.

What is the score prediction for Toulouse vs Le Havre AC?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 0-0. We expect Toulouse to score 1.4 goals and Le Havre AC 1.0.

Will both teams score in Toulouse vs Le Havre AC?

Both teams to score has a 49% chance. Both sides scored in 10 of Toulouse last 20 games and 11 of Le Havre AC last 20.

How are Toulouse playing?

How are Le Havre AC playing?

What happened when Toulouse and Le Havre AC last met?

It ended Le Havre AC 2, Toulouse 1. In the last 2 meetings Toulouse won 0 and Le Havre AC won 1.

What is the best bet for Toulouse vs Le Havre AC?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.29, with a 77% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.