UC Davis Aggies vs SMU Mustangs prediction

The eagle's three picks

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Eagle safe pick

SMU -19.5

73% chanceFair price -2761 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1. 1
   What our numbers say

   The model gives SMU Mustangs 95% and UC Davis Aggies 5%. The bookmakers agree and make SMU Mustangs the favourite at -4000.

2. 2
   Recent form

   SMU Mustangs won 4 of their last 5 and UC Davis Aggies won 1 of their last 1. SMU Mustangs come in with the better run.

3. 3
   Scoring

   SMU Mustangs score 29.9 points a game and let in 19.2. UC Davis Aggies score 31.0 and let in 27.0. Their recent games average 49.1 and 58.0 points in total, and the market line is 58.5.

4. 4
   The safest bet

   SMU -19.5 has a 73% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

Team records

Last 12 games in all competitions.

Note: W is a win and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against Draft Kings

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Spread and total at every line

Note: A spread gives one team a head start. SMU +3.5 wins if SMU win or lose by 3 or fewer. If the result lands exactly on the line, your stake comes back.