UCF Knights vs Pittsburgh Panthers prediction

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Pitt to win

70% chancePrice -2851 unit

⚡

Eagle bold pick

UCF to win

30% chancePrice +2301 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1. 1
   What our numbers say

   The model gives Pittsburgh Panthers 70% and UCF Knights 30%. The bookmakers agree and make Pittsburgh Panthers the favourite at -285.

2. 2
   Recent form

   Pittsburgh Panthers won 2 of their last 5 and UCF Knights won 2 of their last 5. Both sides come in with a similar run.

3. 3
   Home and away

   Pittsburgh Panthers won 3 of their last 6 games at home. UCF Knights won 0 of their last 5 on the road.

4. 4
   Scoring

   Pittsburgh Panthers score 32.6 points a game and let in 25.8. UCF Knights score 25.5 and let in 24.7. Their recent games average 58.4 and 50.2 points in total, and the market line is 56.5.

5. 5
   The safest bet

   Pitt to win has a 70% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

Team records

Last 12 games in all competitions.

Note: W is a win and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against Draft Kings

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Spread and total at every line

Note: A spread gives one team a head start. Pitt +3.5 wins if Pitt win or lose by 3 or fewer. If the result lands exactly on the line, your stake comes back.