Predictions › Serie A › Udinese vs Cagliari

Serie ASat 19 Sept, 13:00 UTC

Udinese vs Cagliari prediction

Stadio Friuli

UdineseHome

1.27 : 0.96

expected goals

CagliariAway

43%Udinese

30%Draw

27%Cagliari

Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals

1.23

Quick answer

Our prediction for Udinese vs Cagliari is Udinese to win, with a 43% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.23.

Prediction: Udinese to win
Chance: 43%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Udinese 1.3, Cagliari 1.0
Best bet: Under 3.5 goals at 1.23
Both teams to score: 45%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals

81% chanceFair price 1.232 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1

14% chanceFair price 7.201 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Udinese 43%, the draw 30% and Cagliari 27%. The bookmakers agree and make Udinese the favourite at 2.05.
2
Recent form
Udinese took 4 points from their last 5 games and Cagliari took 12 from 5. Cagliari come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Udinese won 3 of their last 10 games at home. Cagliari won 3 of their last 9 on the road.
4
Goals
Udinese score 1.4 goals a game and let in 1.0. Cagliari score 1.0 and let in 1.2. Over 2.5 goals landed in 9 of Udinese games and 9 of Cagliari games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, Udinese won 1 and Cagliari won 0 with 1 draw. The last one ended Cagliari 0, Udinese 2.
6
The safest bet
Under 3.5 goals has a 81% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

Match preview

Udinese vs Cagliari: Udinese shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Udinese host Cagliari in the Serie A on Sat 19 Sept, 13:00 at Stadio Friuli. Our prediction for Udinese vs Cagliari is Udinese to win, with a 43% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.23.

Udinese form

Udinese have 8 wins, 4 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 28 goals scored and 20 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, D, L, L, newest first.

Cagliari form

Cagliari have 8 wins, 3 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 20 goals scored and 24 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, L, W, W, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Udinese won 1, Cagliari won 0 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Cagliari 0, Udinese 2.

Our call

We expect Udinese to score about 1.3 goals and Cagliari about 1.0. That points to Udinese to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.23. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7.20.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Udinese	Cagliari
Games played	20	20
Wins	8	8
Draws	4	3
Losses	8	9
Goals scored	28	20
Goals conceded	20	24
Scored per game	1.4	1.0
Conceded per game	1.0	1.2
Home record	3W 2D 5L	5W 1D 5L
Away record	5W 2D 3L	3W 2D 4L
Clean sheets	35%	30%
Both teams scored	40%	40%
Over 2.5 goals	45%	45%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Udinese to win	43%	2.35	2.05	-12.7%
A Draw	30%	3.33	3.10	-7.0%
Cagliari to win	27%	3.65	3.55	-2.8%
Over 2.5 goals	40%	2.49	2.30	-7.6%
Under 2.5 goals	60%	1.67	1.59	-5.0%
Udinese -0.5	46%	2.20	1.95	-11.2%
Cagliari +0.5	54%	1.84	1.71	-6.6%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	66%	1.51
Over 2.5 goals	39%	2.59
Over 3.5 goals	19%	5.34
Both teams to score	45%	2.21
Udinese or Draw	73%	1.38
Cagliari or Draw	57%	1.74
Udinese to win and Over 2.5	21%	4.73
Cagliari to win and Over 2.5	13%	7.77
Udinese clean sheet	38%	2.62
Cagliari clean sheet	28%	3.56

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.9%

1-012.8%

0-011.5%

0-19.5%

2-08.6%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Udinese vs Cagliari?

Our prediction for Udinese vs Cagliari is Udinese to win, with a 43% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.23.

What is the score prediction for Udinese vs Cagliari?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 0-0. We expect Udinese to score 1.3 goals and Cagliari 1.0.

Will both teams score in Udinese vs Cagliari?

Both teams to score has a 45% chance. Both sides scored in 8 of Udinese last 20 games and 8 of Cagliari last 20.

How are Udinese playing?

How are Cagliari playing?

What happened when Udinese and Cagliari last met?

It ended Cagliari 0, Udinese 2. In the last 2 meetings Udinese won 1 and Cagliari won 0.

What is the best bet for Udinese vs Cagliari?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.23, with a 81% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.