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Predictions › Belgian Pro League › Union St.-Gilloise vs Lommel SK
Belgian Pro LeagueSat 12 Sept, 18:45 UTC

Union St.-Gilloise vs Lommel SK prediction

Stade Joseph Marien

Union St.-GilloiseHome
2.83 : 0.91
expected goals
Lommel SKAway
77%Union SG
15%Draw
9%Lommel SK
Eagle safe pickOver 2.5 goals
1.39

Quick answer

Our prediction for Union St.-Gilloise vs Lommel SK is Union St.-Gilloise to win, with a 77% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is Over 2.5 goals at 1.39.

Prediction
Union St.-Gilloise to win
Chance
77%
Most likely score
2-0
Expected goals
Union St.-Gilloise 2.8, Lommel SK 0.9
Best bet
Over 2.5 goals at 1.39
Both teams to score
57%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 2.5 goals
72% chanceFair price 1.391 unit
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Union St.-Gilloise to win and both score
39% chanceFair price 2.561 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Union St.-Gilloise 77%, the draw 15% and Lommel SK 9%. The bookmakers agree and make Union St.-Gilloise the favourite at 1.21.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Union St.-Gilloise took 13 points from their last 5 games and Lommel SK took 7 from 5. Union St.-Gilloise come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Goals

    Union St.-Gilloise score 1.9 goals a game and let in 0.8. Lommel SK score 1.2 and let in 0.6. Over 2.5 goals landed in 13 of Union St.-Gilloise games and 1 of Lommel SK games in that run.

  4. 4
    The safest bet

    Over 2.5 goals has a 72% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

Match preview

Union St.-Gilloise vs Lommel SK: Union St.-Gilloise are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Union St.-Gilloise host Lommel SK in the Belgian Pro League on Sat 12 Sept, 18:45 at Stade Joseph Marien. Our prediction for Union St.-Gilloise vs Lommel SK is Union St.-Gilloise to win, with a 77% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is Over 2.5 goals at 1.39.

Union St.-Gilloise form

Union St.-Gilloise have 14 wins, 4 draws and 2 losses in their last 20 games, with 39 goals scored and 16 conceded. At home they have 8 wins, 2 draws and 0 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, D, W, newest first.

Lommel SK form

Lommel SK have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses in their last 5 games, with 6 goals scored and 3 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 1 draw and 0 losses from 2. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, L, D, newest first.

Our call

We expect Union St.-Gilloise to score about 2.8 goals and Lommel SK about 0.9. That points to Union St.-Gilloise to win, with 2-0 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 2.5 goals at 1.39. Our bold bet is Union St.-Gilloise to win and both score at 2.56.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

Union SGLommel SK
Games played205
Wins142
Draws41
Losses22
Goals scored396
Goals conceded163
Scored per game1.91.2
Conceded per game0.80.6
Home record8W 2D 0L1W 0D 2L
Away record6W 2D 2L1W 1D 0L
Clean sheets50%40%
Both teams scored45%20%
Over 2.5 goals65%20%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
Union St.-Gilloise to win77%1.311.21-7.3%
A Draw15%6.897.00+1.5%
Lommel SK to win9%11.2311.00-2.0%
Over 3.5 goals47%2.142.10-2.1%
Under 3.5 goals53%1.871.69-9.8%
Union St.-Gilloise -1.558%1.741.61-7.6%
Lommel SK +1.542%2.362.20-6.6%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals89%1.12
Over 2.5 goals72%1.39
Over 3.5 goals51%1.95
Both teams to score57%1.77
Union St.-Gilloise or Draw91%1.10
Lommel SK or Draw23%4.27
Union St.-Gilloise to win and Over 2.561%1.65
Lommel SK to win and Over 2.56%16.33
Union St.-Gilloise clean sheet40%2.48
Lommel SK clean sheet6%16.92

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

2-09.5%
3-09.0%
2-18.7%
3-18.2%
1-16.5%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Union St.-Gilloise vs Lommel SK?

Our prediction for Union St.-Gilloise vs Lommel SK is Union St.-Gilloise to win, with a 77% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is Over 2.5 goals at 1.39.

What is the score prediction for Union St.-Gilloise vs Lommel SK?

2-0 is the most likely score, followed by 3-0 and 2-1. We expect Union St.-Gilloise to score 2.8 goals and Lommel SK 0.9.

Will both teams score in Union St.-Gilloise vs Lommel SK?

Both teams to score has a 57% chance. Both sides scored in 9 of Union St.-Gilloise last 20 games and 1 of Lommel SK last 5.

How are Union St.-Gilloise playing?

Union St.-Gilloise have 14 wins, 4 draws and 2 losses in their last 20 games, with 39 goals scored and 16 conceded. At home they have 8 wins, 2 draws and 0 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, D, W, newest first.

How are Lommel SK playing?

Lommel SK have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses in their last 5 games, with 6 goals scored and 3 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 1 draw and 0 losses from 2. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, L, D, newest first.

What is the best bet for Union St.-Gilloise vs Lommel SK?

Over 2.5 goals at 1.39, with a 72% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.