UTSA Roadrunners vs Texas State Bobcats prediction

The eagle's three picks

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Eagle safe pick

Under 76.5 points

75% chanceFair price -2941 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1. 1
   What our numbers say

   The model gives Texas State Bobcats 53% and UTSA Roadrunners 47%. The bookmakers agree and make Texas State Bobcats the favourite at -122.

2. 2
   Recent form

   Texas State Bobcats won 4 of their last 5 and UTSA Roadrunners won 4 of their last 5. Both sides come in with a similar run.

3. 3
   Home and away

   Texas State Bobcats won 4 of their last 6 games at home. UTSA Roadrunners won 2 of their last 5 on the road.

4. 4
   Scoring

   Texas State Bobcats score 32.2 points a game and let in 31.1. UTSA Roadrunners score 37.3 and let in 25.5. Their recent games average 63.3 and 62.8 points in total, and the market line is 66.5.

5. 5
   The safest bet

   Under 76.5 points has a 75% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

Team records

Last 12 games in all competitions.

Note: W is a win and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against Draft Kings

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Spread and total at every line

Note: A spread gives one team a head start. Texas St +3.5 wins if Texas St win or lose by 3 or fewer. If the result lands exactly on the line, your stake comes back.