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Predictions › J1 League › V-Varen Nagasaki vs Nagoya Grampus
J1 LeagueSat 12 Sept, 10:00 UTC

V-Varen Nagasaki vs Nagoya Grampus prediction

PEACE STADIUM Connected by SoftBank

V-Varen NagasakiHome
1.39 : 1.61
expected goals
Nagoya GrampusAway
32%V-Varen
25%Draw
42%Nagoya
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.24

Quick answer

Our prediction for V-Varen Nagasaki vs Nagoya Grampus is Nagoya Grampus to win, with a 42% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.24.

Prediction
Nagoya Grampus to win
Chance
42%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
V-Varen Nagasaki 1.4, Nagoya Grampus 1.6
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.24
Both teams to score
61%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
81% chanceFair price 1.242 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

V-Varen Nagasaki to win
32% chancePrice 3.20+3.9% value1 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives V-Varen Nagasaki 32%, the draw 25% and Nagoya Grampus 42%. The bookmakers agree and make Nagoya Grampus the favourite at 2.10.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    V-Varen Nagasaki took 1 point from their last 5 games and Nagoya Grampus took 6 from 5. Nagoya Grampus come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    V-Varen Nagasaki won 3 of their last 10 games at home. Nagoya Grampus won 2 of their last 9 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    V-Varen Nagasaki score 1.1 goals a game and let in 1.6. Nagoya Grampus score 1.6 and let in 1.8. Over 2.5 goals landed in 12 of V-Varen Nagasaki games and 16 of Nagoya Grampus games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, V-Varen Nagasaki won 1 and Nagoya Grampus won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended V-Varen Nagasaki 1, Nagoya Grampus 2.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 81% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

Match preview

V-Varen Nagasaki vs Nagoya Grampus: Nagoya Grampus shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

V-Varen Nagasaki host Nagoya Grampus in the J1 League on Sat 12 Sept, 10:00 at PEACE STADIUM Connected by SoftBank. Our prediction for V-Varen Nagasaki vs Nagoya Grampus is Nagoya Grampus to win, with a 42% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.24.

V-Varen Nagasaki form

V-Varen Nagasaki have 6 wins, 3 draws and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 21 goals scored and 33 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, D, L, L, L, newest first.

Nagoya Grampus form

Nagoya Grampus have 8 wins, 4 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 33 goals scored and 35 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 1 draw and 6 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, L, W, W, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. V-Varen Nagasaki won 1, Nagoya Grampus won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished V-Varen Nagasaki 1, Nagoya Grampus 2.

Our call

We expect V-Varen Nagasaki to score about 1.4 goals and Nagoya Grampus about 1.6. That points to Nagoya Grampus to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.24. Our bold bet is V-Varen Nagasaki to win at 3.20.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

V-VarenNagoya
Games played2020
Wins68
Draws34
Losses118
Goals scored2133
Goals conceded3335
Scored per game1.11.6
Conceded per game1.61.8
Home record3W 3D 4L6W 3D 2L
Away record3W 0D 7L2W 1D 6L
Clean sheets15%15%
Both teams scored55%75%
Over 2.5 goals60%80%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
V-Varen Nagasaki to win32%3.083.20+3.9%
A Draw25%3.933.65-7.0%
Nagoya Grampus to win42%2.382.10-11.7%
Over 2.5 goals57%1.761.65-6.3%
Under 2.5 goals43%2.322.15-7.5%
V-Varen Nagasaki +0.556%1.791.69-5.8%
Nagoya Grampus -0.544%2.262.05-9.3%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals81%1.24
Over 2.5 goals58%1.73
Over 3.5 goals35%2.83
Both teams to score61%1.65
V-Varen Nagasaki or Draw58%1.73
Nagoya Grampus or Draw68%1.48
V-Varen Nagasaki to win and Over 2.521%4.67
Nagoya Grampus to win and Over 2.528%3.54
V-Varen Nagasaki clean sheet20%5.00
Nagoya Grampus clean sheet25%4.02

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-111.8%
1-29.0%
2-17.7%
0-17.3%
0-26.4%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win V-Varen Nagasaki vs Nagoya Grampus?

Our prediction for V-Varen Nagasaki vs Nagoya Grampus is Nagoya Grampus to win, with a 42% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.24.

What is the score prediction for V-Varen Nagasaki vs Nagoya Grampus?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-2 and 2-1. We expect V-Varen Nagasaki to score 1.4 goals and Nagoya Grampus 1.6.

Will both teams score in V-Varen Nagasaki vs Nagoya Grampus?

Both teams to score has a 61% chance. Both sides scored in 11 of V-Varen Nagasaki last 20 games and 15 of Nagoya Grampus last 20.

How are V-Varen Nagasaki playing?

V-Varen Nagasaki have 6 wins, 3 draws and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 21 goals scored and 33 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, D, L, L, L, newest first.

How are Nagoya Grampus playing?

Nagoya Grampus have 8 wins, 4 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 33 goals scored and 35 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 1 draw and 6 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, L, W, W, L, newest first.

What happened when V-Varen Nagasaki and Nagoya Grampus last met?

It ended V-Varen Nagasaki 1, Nagoya Grampus 2. In the last 2 meetings V-Varen Nagasaki won 1 and Nagoya Grampus won 1.

What is the best bet for V-Varen Nagasaki vs Nagoya Grampus?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.24, with a 81% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.