Predictions › Brasileirao › Vasco da Gama vs Coritiba

BrasileiraoSat 19 Sept, 23:30 UTC

Vasco da Gama vs Coritiba prediction

Estádio São Januário

Vasco da GamaHome

1.40 : 1.58

expected goals

CoritibaAway

33%Vasco

26%Draw

41%Coritiba

Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals

1.24

Quick answer

Our prediction for Vasco da Gama vs Coritiba is Coritiba to win, with a 41% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.24.

Prediction: Coritiba to win
Chance: 41%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Vasco da Gama 1.4, Coritiba 1.6
Best bet: Over 1.5 goals at 1.24
Both teams to score: 61%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals

80% chanceFair price 1.242 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Coritiba to win and Over 2.5

27% chanceFair price 3.661 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Vasco da Gama 33%, the draw 26% and Coritiba 41%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.
2
Recent form
Vasco da Gama took 4 points from their last 5 games and Coritiba took 10 from 5. Coritiba come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Vasco da Gama won 5 of their last 10 games at home. Coritiba won 3 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
Vasco da Gama score 1.1 goals a game and let in 1.6. Coritiba score 1.3 and let in 1.4. Over 2.5 goals landed in 11 of Vasco da Gama games and 11 of Coritiba games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 1 meeting, Vasco da Gama won 0 and Coritiba won 0 with 1 draw. The last one ended Coritiba 1, Vasco da Gama 1.
6
The safest bet
Over 1.5 goals has a 80% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

Match preview

Vasco da Gama vs Coritiba: Coritiba shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Vasco da Gama host Coritiba in the Brasileirao on Sat 19 Sept, 23:30 at Estádio São Januário. Our prediction for Vasco da Gama vs Coritiba is Coritiba to win, with a 41% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.24.

Vasco da Gama form

Vasco da Gama have 5 wins, 6 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 22 goals scored and 33 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, L, L, D, newest first.

Coritiba form

Coritiba have 7 wins, 6 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 26 goals scored and 29 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, D, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Vasco da Gama won 0, Coritiba won 0 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Coritiba 1, Vasco da Gama 1.

Our call

We expect Vasco da Gama to score about 1.4 goals and Coritiba about 1.6. That points to Coritiba to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.24. Our bold bet is Coritiba to win and Over 2.5 at 3.66.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Vasco	Coritiba
Games played	20	20
Wins	5	7
Draws	6	6
Losses	9	7
Goals scored	22	26
Goals conceded	33	29
Scored per game	1.1	1.3
Conceded per game	1.6	1.4
Home record	5W 1D 4L	4W 3D 3L
Away record	0W 5D 5L	3W 3D 4L
Clean sheets	10%	20%
Both teams scored	60%	60%
Over 2.5 goals	55%	55%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	80%	1.24
Over 2.5 goals	57%	1.75
Over 3.5 goals	35%	2.87
Both teams to score	61%	1.65
Vasco da Gama or Draw	59%	1.69
Coritiba or Draw	67%	1.50
Vasco da Gama to win and Over 2.5	22%	4.56
Coritiba to win and Over 2.5	27%	3.66
Vasco da Gama clean sheet	21%	4.84
Coritiba clean sheet	25%	4.07

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-111.9%

1-28.9%

2-17.9%

0-17.3%

1-06.5%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Vasco da Gama vs Coritiba?

Our prediction for Vasco da Gama vs Coritiba is Coritiba to win, with a 41% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.24.

What is the score prediction for Vasco da Gama vs Coritiba?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-2 and 2-1. We expect Vasco da Gama to score 1.4 goals and Coritiba 1.6.

Will both teams score in Vasco da Gama vs Coritiba?

Both teams to score has a 61% chance. Both sides scored in 12 of Vasco da Gama last 20 games and 12 of Coritiba last 20.

How are Vasco da Gama playing?

How are Coritiba playing?

What happened when Vasco da Gama and Coritiba last met?

It ended Coritiba 1, Vasco da Gama 1. In the last 1 meeting Vasco da Gama won 0 and Coritiba won 0.

What is the best bet for Vasco da Gama vs Coritiba?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.24, with a 80% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.