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Predictions › Argentina Liga Profesional › Vélez Sarsfield vs Tigre
Argentina Liga ProfesionalMon 21 Sept, 00:30 UTC

Vélez Sarsfield vs Tigre prediction

José Amalfitani

Vélez SarsfieldHome
0.82 : 0.68
expected goals
TigreAway
35%Vélez
38%Draw
27%Tigre
Eagle safe pickUnder 2.5 goals
1.24

Quick answer

Our prediction for Vélez Sarsfield vs Tigre is a draw, with a 38% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 0-0. Our best bet is Under 2.5 goals at 1.24.

Prediction
A draw
Chance
38%
Most likely score
0-0
Expected goals
Vélez Sarsfield 0.8, Tigre 0.7
Best bet
Under 2.5 goals at 1.24
Both teams to score
28%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 2.5 goals
81% chanceFair price 1.242 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 0-0
23% chanceFair price 4.331 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Vélez Sarsfield 35%, the draw 38% and Tigre 27%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Vélez Sarsfield took 7 points from their last 5 games and Tigre took 8 from 5. Tigre come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Vélez Sarsfield won 4 of their last 10 games at home. Tigre won 1 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Vélez Sarsfield score 1.1 goals a game and let in 0.8. Tigre score 0.8 and let in 0.8. Over 2.5 goals landed in 4 of Vélez Sarsfield games and 5 of Tigre games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 1 meeting, Vélez Sarsfield won 0 and Tigre won 0 with 1 draw. The last one ended Tigre 1, Vélez Sarsfield 1.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Under 2.5 goals has a 81% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

Match preview

Vélez Sarsfield vs Tigre: a draw looks likely

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Vélez Sarsfield host Tigre in the Argentina Liga Profesional on Mon 21 Sept, 00:30 at José Amalfitani. Our prediction for Vélez Sarsfield vs Tigre is a draw, with a 38% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 0-0. Our best bet is Under 2.5 goals at 1.24.

Vélez Sarsfield form

Vélez Sarsfield have 7 wins, 10 draws and 3 losses in their last 20 games, with 22 goals scored and 16 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 4 draws and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, W, D, D, D, newest first.

Tigre form

Tigre have 4 wins, 10 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 15 goals scored and 17 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 4 draws and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, D, W, D, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Vélez Sarsfield won 0, Tigre won 0 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Tigre 1, Vélez Sarsfield 1.

Our call

We expect Vélez Sarsfield to score about 0.8 goals and Tigre about 0.7. That points to a draw, with 0-0 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 2.5 goals at 1.24. Our bold bet is Correct score 0-0 at 4.33.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

Vélez Tigre
Games played2020
Wins74
Draws1010
Losses36
Goals scored2215
Goals conceded1617
Scored per game1.10.8
Conceded per game0.80.8
Home record4W 4D 2L3W 6D 1L
Away record3W 6D 1L1W 4D 5L
Clean sheets40%35%
Both teams scored50%45%
Over 2.5 goals20%25%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals45%2.23
Over 2.5 goals19%5.25
Over 3.5 goals7%15.29
Both teams to score28%3.53
Vélez Sarsfield or Draw73%1.37
Tigre or Draw65%1.54
Vélez Sarsfield to win and Over 2.510%10.01
Tigre to win and Over 2.57%13.83
Vélez Sarsfield clean sheet51%1.97
Tigre clean sheet44%2.27

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

0-023.1%
1-017.6%
0-114.4%
1-113.2%
2-07.5%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Vélez Sarsfield vs Tigre?

Our prediction for Vélez Sarsfield vs Tigre is a draw, with a 38% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 0-0. Our best bet is Under 2.5 goals at 1.24.

What is the score prediction for Vélez Sarsfield vs Tigre?

0-0 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 0-1. We expect Vélez Sarsfield to score 0.8 goals and Tigre 0.7.

Will both teams score in Vélez Sarsfield vs Tigre?

Both teams to score has a 28% chance. Both sides scored in 10 of Vélez Sarsfield last 20 games and 9 of Tigre last 20.

How are Vélez Sarsfield playing?

Vélez Sarsfield have 7 wins, 10 draws and 3 losses in their last 20 games, with 22 goals scored and 16 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 4 draws and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, W, D, D, D, newest first.

How are Tigre playing?

Tigre have 4 wins, 10 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 15 goals scored and 17 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 4 draws and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, D, W, D, W, newest first.

What happened when Vélez Sarsfield and Tigre last met?

It ended Tigre 1, Vélez Sarsfield 1. In the last 1 meeting Vélez Sarsfield won 0 and Tigre won 0.

What is the best bet for Vélez Sarsfield vs Tigre?

Under 2.5 goals at 1.24, with a 81% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.