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Predictions › Serie A › Venezia vs Lazio
Serie ASat 19 Sept, 18:45 UTC

Venezia vs Lazio prediction

Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo

VeneziaHome
1.18 : 1.49
expected goals
LazioAway
29%Venezia
27%Draw
44%Lazio
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.33

Quick answer

Our prediction for Venezia vs Lazio is Lazio to win, with a 44% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.33.

Prediction
Lazio to win
Chance
44%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Venezia 1.2, Lazio 1.5
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.33
Both teams to score
54%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
75% chanceFair price 1.332 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Lazio to win and Over 2.5
26% chanceFair price 3.791 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Venezia 29%, the draw 27% and Lazio 44%. The bookmakers agree and make Lazio the favourite at 2.15.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Venezia took 0 points from their last 4 games and Lazio took 12 from 5. Lazio come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Goals

    Venezia score 1.0 goals a game and let in 2.8. Lazio score 1.2 and let in 1.1. Over 2.5 goals landed in 2 of Venezia games and 8 of Lazio games in that run.

  4. 4
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 75% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

Match preview

Venezia vs Lazio: Lazio shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Venezia host Lazio in the Serie A on Sat 19 Sept, 18:45 at Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo. Our prediction for Venezia vs Lazio is Lazio to win, with a 44% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.33.

Venezia form

Venezia have 0 wins, 0 draws and 4 losses in their last 4 games, with 4 goals scored and 11 conceded. At home they have 0 wins, 0 draws and 2 losses from 2. Their last 4 results read L, L, L, L, newest first.

Lazio form

Lazio have 10 wins, 5 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 24 goals scored and 22 conceded. Away from home they have 5 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, W, L, newest first.

Our call

We expect Venezia to score about 1.2 goals and Lazio about 1.5. That points to Lazio to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.33. Our bold bet is Lazio to win and Over 2.5 at 3.79.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

VeneziaLazio
Games played420
Wins010
Draws05
Losses45
Goals scored424
Goals conceded1122
Scored per game1.01.2
Conceded per game2.81.1
Home record0W 0D 2L5W 2D 2L
Away record0W 0D 2L5W 3D 3L
Clean sheets0%35%
Both teams scored50%40%
Over 2.5 goals50%40%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
Venezia to win29%3.423.05-10.8%
A Draw27%3.693.30-10.6%
Lazio to win44%2.292.15-6.1%
Over 2.5 goals51%1.971.83-7.1%
Under 2.5 goals49%2.031.91-5.8%
Venezia +0.556%1.771.63-8.4%
Lazio -0.544%2.292.10-8.4%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals75%1.33
Over 2.5 goals50%2.01
Over 3.5 goals28%3.59
Both teams to score54%1.84
Venezia or Draw56%1.78
Lazio or Draw71%1.41
Venezia to win and Over 2.517%5.89
Lazio to win and Over 2.526%3.79
Venezia clean sheet23%4.44
Lazio clean sheet31%3.25

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-112.9%
0-19.6%
1-29.1%
0-27.7%
0-07.7%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Venezia vs Lazio?

Our prediction for Venezia vs Lazio is Lazio to win, with a 44% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.33.

What is the score prediction for Venezia vs Lazio?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 0-1 and 1-2. We expect Venezia to score 1.2 goals and Lazio 1.5.

Will both teams score in Venezia vs Lazio?

Both teams to score has a 54% chance. Both sides scored in 2 of Venezia last 4 games and 8 of Lazio last 20.

How are Venezia playing?

Venezia have 0 wins, 0 draws and 4 losses in their last 4 games, with 4 goals scored and 11 conceded. At home they have 0 wins, 0 draws and 2 losses from 2. Their last 4 results read L, L, L, L, newest first.

How are Lazio playing?

Lazio have 10 wins, 5 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 24 goals scored and 22 conceded. Away from home they have 5 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, W, L, newest first.

What is the best bet for Venezia vs Lazio?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.33, with a 75% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.