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Predictions › Bundesliga › VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund
BundesligaSat 19 Sept, 16:30 UTC

VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund prediction

MHPArena

VfB StuttgartHome
1.54 : 1.38
expected goals
Borussia DortmundAway
41%Stuttgart
26%Draw
33%Dortmund
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.26

Quick answer

Our prediction for VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund is VfB Stuttgart to win, with a 41% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.26.

Prediction
VfB Stuttgart to win
Chance
41%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
VfB Stuttgart 1.5, Borussia Dortmund 1.4
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.26
Both teams to score
59%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
79% chanceFair price 1.262 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

VfB Stuttgart to win and Over 2.5
27% chanceFair price 3.771 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives VfB Stuttgart 41%, the draw 26% and Borussia Dortmund 33%. The bookmakers agree and make VfB Stuttgart the favourite at 2.25.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    VfB Stuttgart took 10 points from their last 5 games and Borussia Dortmund took 15 from 5. Borussia Dortmund come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    VfB Stuttgart won 7 of their last 11 games at home. Borussia Dortmund won 5 of their last 9 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    VfB Stuttgart score 2.3 goals a game and let in 1.7. Borussia Dortmund score 2.1 and let in 1.3. Over 2.5 goals landed in 15 of VfB Stuttgart games and 13 of Borussia Dortmund games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, VfB Stuttgart won 0 and Borussia Dortmund won 1 with 1 draw. The last one ended VfB Stuttgart 0, Borussia Dortmund 2.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 79% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

Match preview

VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund: VfB Stuttgart shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

VfB Stuttgart host Borussia Dortmund in the Bundesliga on Sat 19 Sept, 16:30 at MHPArena. Our prediction for VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund is VfB Stuttgart to win, with a 41% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.26.

VfB Stuttgart form

VfB Stuttgart have 9 wins, 5 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 46 goals scored and 34 conceded. At home they have 7 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, W, L, D, W, newest first.

Borussia Dortmund form

Borussia Dortmund have 14 wins, 1 draw and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 43 goals scored and 25 conceded. Away from home they have 5 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, W, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. VfB Stuttgart won 0, Borussia Dortmund won 1 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished VfB Stuttgart 0, Borussia Dortmund 2.

Our call

We expect VfB Stuttgart to score about 1.5 goals and Borussia Dortmund about 1.4. That points to VfB Stuttgart to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.26. Our bold bet is VfB Stuttgart to win and Over 2.5 at 3.77.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

StuttgartDortmund
Games played2020
Wins914
Draws51
Losses65
Goals scored4643
Goals conceded3425
Scored per game2.32.1
Conceded per game1.71.3
Home record7W 1D 3L9W 0D 2L
Away record2W 4D 3L5W 1D 3L
Clean sheets15%35%
Both teams scored70%55%
Over 2.5 goals75%65%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
VfB Stuttgart to win41%2.462.25-8.6%
A Draw26%3.853.60-6.5%
Borussia Dortmund to win33%2.992.75-8.2%
Over 3.5 goals48%2.101.87-11.2%
Under 3.5 goals52%1.911.87-1.8%
VfB Stuttgart -0.542%2.392.15-9.9%
Borussia Dortmund +0.558%1.721.59-7.8%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals79%1.26
Over 2.5 goals56%1.79
Over 3.5 goals33%2.99
Both teams to score59%1.68
VfB Stuttgart or Draw67%1.50
Borussia Dortmund or Draw59%1.68
VfB Stuttgart to win and Over 2.527%3.76
Borussia Dortmund to win and Over 2.521%4.65
VfB Stuttgart clean sheet25%3.96
Borussia Dortmund clean sheet21%4.66

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-112.2%
2-18.8%
1-27.9%
1-07.6%
0-16.8%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund?

Our prediction for VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund is VfB Stuttgart to win, with a 41% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.26.

What is the score prediction for VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 1-2. We expect VfB Stuttgart to score 1.5 goals and Borussia Dortmund 1.4.

Will both teams score in VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund?

Both teams to score has a 59% chance. Both sides scored in 14 of VfB Stuttgart last 20 games and 11 of Borussia Dortmund last 20.

How are VfB Stuttgart playing?

VfB Stuttgart have 9 wins, 5 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 46 goals scored and 34 conceded. At home they have 7 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, W, L, D, W, newest first.

How are Borussia Dortmund playing?

Borussia Dortmund have 14 wins, 1 draw and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 43 goals scored and 25 conceded. Away from home they have 5 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, W, W, newest first.

What happened when VfB Stuttgart and Borussia Dortmund last met?

It ended VfB Stuttgart 0, Borussia Dortmund 2. In the last 2 meetings VfB Stuttgart won 0 and Borussia Dortmund won 1.

What is the best bet for VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.26, with a 79% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.