Predictions › Europa League › Viktoria Plzen vs Union St.-Gilloise

Europa LeagueThu 17 Sept, 19:00 UTC

Viktoria Plzen vs Union St.-Gilloise prediction

Doosan Arena

Viktoria PlzenHome

1.35 : 1.38

expected goals

Union St.-GilloiseAway

36%Viktoria Plzen

27%Draw

37%Union SG

Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals

1.31

Quick answer

Our prediction for Viktoria Plzen vs Union St.-Gilloise is Union St.-Gilloise to win, with a 37% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.31.

Prediction: Union St.-Gilloise to win
Chance: 37%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Viktoria Plzen 1.4, Union St.-Gilloise 1.4
Best bet: Over 1.5 goals at 1.31
Both teams to score: 56%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals

76% chanceFair price 1.312 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1

13% chanceFair price 7.751 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Viktoria Plzen 36%, the draw 27% and Union St.-Gilloise 37%. The bookmakers see it the other way and make Viktoria Plzen the favourite at 2.55, so take care with this one.
2
Recent form
Viktoria Plzen took 7 points from their last 5 games and Union St.-Gilloise took 13 from 5. Union St.-Gilloise come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Viktoria Plzen won 1 of their last 5 games at home. Union St.-Gilloise won 6 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
Viktoria Plzen score 1.1 goals a game and let in 0.6. Union St.-Gilloise score 1.9 and let in 0.8. Over 2.5 goals landed in 3 of Viktoria Plzen games and 13 of Union St.-Gilloise games in that run.
5
The safest bet
Over 1.5 goals has a 76% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

Match preview

Viktoria Plzen vs Union St.-Gilloise: Union St.-Gilloise shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Viktoria Plzen host Union St.-Gilloise in the Europa League on Thu 17 Sept, 19:00 at Doosan Arena. Our prediction for Viktoria Plzen vs Union St.-Gilloise is Union St.-Gilloise to win, with a 37% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.31.

Viktoria Plzen form

Viktoria Plzen have 3 wins, 7 draws and 0 losses in their last 10 games, with 11 goals scored and 6 conceded. At home they have 1 win, 4 draws and 0 losses from 5. Their last 5 results read D, D, W, D, D, newest first.

Union St.-Gilloise form

Union St.-Gilloise have 14 wins, 4 draws and 2 losses in their last 20 games, with 39 goals scored and 16 conceded. Away from home they have 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, D, W, newest first.

Our call

We expect Viktoria Plzen to score about 1.4 goals and Union St.-Gilloise about 1.4. That points to Union St.-Gilloise to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.31. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7.75.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Viktoria Plzen	Union SG
Games played	10	20
Wins	3	14
Draws	7	4
Losses	0	2
Goals scored	11	39
Goals conceded	6	16
Scored per game	1.1	1.9
Conceded per game	0.6	0.8
Home record	1W 4D 0L	8W 2D 0L
Away record	2W 3D 0L	6W 2D 2L
Clean sheets	50%	50%
Both teams scored	50%	45%
Over 2.5 goals	30%	65%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Viktoria Plzen to win	36%	2.80	2.55	-8.9%
A Draw	27%	3.68	3.55	-3.6%
Union St.-Gilloise to win	37%	2.69	2.60	-3.4%
Over 2.5 goals	53%	1.90	1.77	-7.1%
Under 2.5 goals	47%	2.11	2.00	-5.0%
Viktoria Plzen -0.5	38%	2.67	2.40	-10.0%
Union St.-Gilloise +0.5	62%	1.60	1.49	-7.0%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	76%	1.31
Over 2.5 goals	51%	1.95
Over 3.5 goals	29%	3.44
Both teams to score	56%	1.78
Viktoria Plzen or Draw	63%	1.59
Union St.-Gilloise or Draw	64%	1.56
Viktoria Plzen to win and Over 2.5	22%	4.62
Union St.-Gilloise to win and Over 2.5	23%	4.42
Viktoria Plzen clean sheet	25%	3.96
Union St.-Gilloise clean sheet	26%	3.84

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-112.9%

1-28.4%

0-18.3%

2-18.2%

1-08.1%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Viktoria Plzen vs Union St.-Gilloise?

Our prediction for Viktoria Plzen vs Union St.-Gilloise is Union St.-Gilloise to win, with a 37% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.31.

What is the score prediction for Viktoria Plzen vs Union St.-Gilloise?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-2 and 0-1. We expect Viktoria Plzen to score 1.4 goals and Union St.-Gilloise 1.4.

Will both teams score in Viktoria Plzen vs Union St.-Gilloise?

Both teams to score has a 56% chance. Both sides scored in 5 of Viktoria Plzen last 10 games and 9 of Union St.-Gilloise last 20.

How are Viktoria Plzen playing?

How are Union St.-Gilloise playing?

What is the best bet for Viktoria Plzen vs Union St.-Gilloise?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.31, with a 76% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.