Villanova Wildcats vs Louisville Cardinals prediction

The eagle's three picks

Picks are made up to two hours before kick off and then locked, so there are none for this game.

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1. 1
   What our numbers say

   The model gives Louisville Cardinals 99% and Villanova Wildcats 1%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

2. 2
   Recent form

   Louisville Cardinals won 2 of their last 5 and Villanova Wildcats won 0 of their last 1. Louisville Cardinals come in with the better run.

3. 3
   Scoring

   Louisville Cardinals score 29.0 points a game and let in 23.8. Villanova Wildcats score 6.0 and let in 52.0. Their recent games average 52.8 and 58.0 points in total, and the market line is 56.5.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

Team records

Last 12 games in all competitions.

Note: W is a win and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against Draft Kings

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Spread and total at every line

Note: A spread gives one team a head start. Louisville +3.5 wins if Louisville win or lose by 3 or fewer. If the result lands exactly on the line, your stake comes back.