Vitória de Guimaraes vs Moreirense prediction

The eagle's three picks

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Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals

82% chanceFair price 1.222 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Vitória de Guimaraes to win and Over 2.5

26% chanceFair price 3.791 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1. 1
   What our numbers say

   The model gives Vitória de Guimaraes 53%, the draw 28% and Moreirense 18%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

2. 2
   Recent form

   Vitória de Guimaraes took 4 points from their last 5 games and Moreirense took 4 from 5. Both sides come in with a similar run.

3. 3
   Home and away

   Vitória de Guimaraes won 5 of their last 10 games at home. Moreirense won 2 of their last 10 on the road.

4. 4
   Goals

   Vitória de Guimaraes score 1.1 goals a game and let in 1.4. Moreirense score 0.8 and let in 1.8. Over 2.5 goals landed in 8 of Vitória de Guimaraes games and 10 of Moreirense games in that run.

5. 5
   Head to head

   In the last 1 meeting, Vitória de Guimaraes won 1 and Moreirense won 0 with 0 draws. The last one ended Vitória de Guimaraes 1, Moreirense 0.

6. 6
   The safest bet

   Under 3.5 goals has a 82% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.