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Predictions › Brasileirao › Vitória vs Cruzeiro
BrasileiraoSun 20 Sept, 19:00 UTC

Vitória vs Cruzeiro prediction

Estadio Manoel Barradas

VitóriaHome
1.23 : 0.82
expected goals
CruzeiroAway
45%Vitória
31%Draw
24%Cruzeiro
Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals
1.18

Quick answer

Our prediction for Vitória vs Cruzeiro is Vitória to win, with a 45% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.18.

Prediction
Vitória to win
Chance
45%
Most likely score
1-0
Expected goals
Vitória 1.2, Cruzeiro 0.8
Best bet
Under 3.5 goals at 1.18
Both teams to score
40%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals
85% chanceFair price 1.182 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-0
15% chanceFair price 6.611 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Vitória 45%, the draw 31% and Cruzeiro 24%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Vitória took 6 points from their last 5 games and Cruzeiro took 12 from 5. Cruzeiro come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Vitória won 7 of their last 10 games at home. Cruzeiro won 5 of their last 9 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Vitória score 0.9 goals a game and let in 1.4. Cruzeiro score 1.6 and let in 1.1. Over 2.5 goals landed in 7 of Vitória games and 13 of Cruzeiro games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Vitória won 0 and Cruzeiro won 2 with 0 draws. The last one ended Cruzeiro 3, Vitória 0.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Under 3.5 goals has a 85% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

Match preview

Vitória vs Cruzeiro: Vitória are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Vitória host Cruzeiro in the Brasileirao on Sun 20 Sept, 19:00 at Estadio Manoel Barradas. Our prediction for Vitória vs Cruzeiro is Vitória to win, with a 45% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.18.

Vitória form

Vitória have 7 wins, 4 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 18 goals scored and 27 conceded. At home they have 7 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, W, L, newest first.

Cruzeiro form

Cruzeiro have 12 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 31 goals scored and 23 conceded. Away from home they have 5 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, L, W, W, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Vitória won 0, Cruzeiro won 2 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Cruzeiro 3, Vitória 0.

Our call

We expect Vitória to score about 1.2 goals and Cruzeiro about 0.8. That points to Vitória to win, with 1-0 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.18. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-0 at 6.61.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

VitóriaCruzeiro
Games played2020
Wins712
Draws43
Losses95
Goals scored1831
Goals conceded2723
Scored per game0.91.6
Conceded per game1.41.1
Home record7W 1D 2L7W 2D 2L
Away record0W 3D 7L5W 1D 3L
Clean sheets40%25%
Both teams scored30%70%
Over 2.5 goals35%65%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals61%1.63
Over 2.5 goals34%2.97
Over 3.5 goals15%6.59
Both teams to score40%2.48
Vitória or Draw76%1.31
Cruzeiro or Draw55%1.83
Vitória to win and Over 2.520%4.93
Cruzeiro to win and Over 2.510%10.31
Vitória clean sheet44%2.26
Cruzeiro clean sheet29%3.43

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-015.1%
1-113.7%
0-013.7%
2-09.8%
0-19.7%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Vitória vs Cruzeiro?

Our prediction for Vitória vs Cruzeiro is Vitória to win, with a 45% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.18.

What is the score prediction for Vitória vs Cruzeiro?

1-0 is the most likely score, followed by 1-1 and 0-0. We expect Vitória to score 1.2 goals and Cruzeiro 0.8.

Will both teams score in Vitória vs Cruzeiro?

Both teams to score has a 40% chance. Both sides scored in 6 of Vitória last 20 games and 14 of Cruzeiro last 20.

How are Vitória playing?

Vitória have 7 wins, 4 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 18 goals scored and 27 conceded. At home they have 7 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, W, L, newest first.

How are Cruzeiro playing?

Cruzeiro have 12 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 31 goals scored and 23 conceded. Away from home they have 5 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, L, W, W, W, newest first.

What happened when Vitória and Cruzeiro last met?

It ended Cruzeiro 3, Vitória 0. In the last 2 meetings Vitória won 0 and Cruzeiro won 2.

What is the best bet for Vitória vs Cruzeiro?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.18, with a 85% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.