Washington Commanders vs Dallas Cowboys prediction

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Cowboys to win

64% chancePrice -1981 unit

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Commanders to win

36% chancePrice +1641 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1. 1
   What our numbers say

   The model gives Dallas Cowboys 64% and Washington Commanders 36%. The bookmakers agree and make Dallas Cowboys the favourite at -198.

2. 2
   Recent form

   Dallas Cowboys won 3 of their last 5 and Washington Commanders won 2 of their last 5. Dallas Cowboys come in with the better run.

3. 3
   Home and away

   Dallas Cowboys won 4 of their last 9 games at home. Washington Commanders won 3 of their last 11 on the road.

4. 4
   Scoring

   Dallas Cowboys score 27.7 points a game and let in 28.1. Washington Commanders score 19.5 and let in 26.8. Their recent games average 55.8 and 46.4 points in total, and the market line is 51.5.

5. 5
   Head to head

   In the last 2 meetings, Dallas Cowboys won 2 and Washington Commanders won 0. The last one ended Washington Commanders 23, Dallas Cowboys 30.

6. 6
   The safest bet

   Cowboys to win has a 64% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

Team records

Last 19 games in all competitions.

Note: W is a win and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against Draft Kings

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Spread and total at every line

Note: A spread gives one team a head start. Cowboys +3.5 wins if Cowboys win or lose by 3 or fewer. If the result lands exactly on the line, your stake comes back.