Predictions › United Kingdom › Watford vs Stoke City

ChampionshipSat 12 Sept, 15:00 United Kingdom time

Watford vs Stoke City prediction

Vicarage Road

WatfordHome

1.44 : 1.09

expected goals

Stoke CityAway

44%Watford

28%Draw

28%Stoke

Eagle value pickWatford to win

7/5

Quick answer

Our prediction for Watford vs Stoke City is Watford to win, with a 44% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Watford to win at 7/5.

Prediction: Watford to win
Chance: 44%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Watford 1.4, Stoke City 1.1
Best bet: Watford to win at 7/5
Both teams to score: 51%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals

75% chanceFair price 1/32 units

★

Eagle value pick

Watford to win

44% chancePrice 7/5+6.3% value2 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Watford to win and Over 2.5

25% chanceFair price 3/11 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Watford 44%, the draw 28% and Stoke City 28%. The bookmakers agree and make Watford the favourite at 7/5.
2
Recent form
Watford took 4 points from their last 5 games and Stoke City took 8 from 5. Stoke City come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Watford won 4 of their last 10 games at home. Stoke City won 0 of their last 9 on the road.
4
Goals
Watford score 0.9 goals a game and let in 1.9. Stoke City score 1.3 and let in 1.8. Over 2.5 goals landed in 10 of Watford games and 10 of Stoke City games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, Watford won 1 and Stoke City won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended Stoke City 3, Watford 1.
6
Where the value is
Watford to win is priced at 7/5. Our fair price is 5/4, so the bookmaker pays about 6.3% more than it should.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

Match preview

Watford vs Stoke City: Watford shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Watford host Stoke City in the Championship on Sat 12 Sept, 15:00 at Vicarage Road. Our prediction for Watford vs Stoke City is Watford to win, with a 44% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Watford to win at 7/5.

Watford form

Watford have 5 wins, 5 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 18 goals scored and 37 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, D, L, newest first.

Stoke City form

Stoke City have 5 wins, 4 draws and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 25 goals scored and 35 conceded. Away from home they have 0 wins, 1 draw and 8 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read D, W, W, L, D, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Watford won 1, Stoke City won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Stoke City 3, Watford 1.

Our call

We expect Watford to score about 1.4 goals and Stoke City about 1.1. That points to Watford to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1/3. Our value bet is Watford to win at 7/5. Our bold bet is Watford to win and Over 2.5 at 3/1.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Watford	Stoke
Games played	20	20
Wins	5	5
Draws	5	4
Losses	10	11
Goals scored	18	25
Goals conceded	37	35
Scored per game	0.9	1.3
Conceded per game	1.9	1.8
Home record	4W 3D 3L	5W 3D 3L
Away record	1W 2D 7L	0W 1D 8L
Clean sheets	10%	20%
Both teams scored	60%	60%
Over 2.5 goals	50%	50%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Watford to win	44%	5/4	7/5	+6.3%
A Draw	28%	13/5	5/2	-4.1%
Stoke City to win	28%	13/5	2/1	-17.8%
Over 2.5 goals	49%	21/20	5/6	-7.8%
Under 2.5 goals	51%	Evens	10/11	-3.2%
Watford -0.5	42%	11/8	5/4	-5.3%
Stoke City +0.5	58%	8/11	4/7	-9.0%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	73%	4/11
Over 2.5 goals	46%	6/5
Over 3.5 goals	25%	3/1
Both teams to score	51%	10/11
Watford or Draw	72%	2/5
Stoke City or Draw	56%	4/5
Watford to win and Over 2.5	25%	3/1
Stoke City to win and Over 2.5	15%	11/2
Watford clean sheet	34%	2/1
Stoke City clean sheet	24%	10/3

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.2%

1-010.7%

2-19.0%

0-08.7%

2-08.2%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Watford vs Stoke City?

Our prediction for Watford vs Stoke City is Watford to win, with a 44% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Watford to win at 7/5.

What is the score prediction for Watford vs Stoke City?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 2-1. We expect Watford to score 1.4 goals and Stoke City 1.1.

Will both teams score in Watford vs Stoke City?

Both teams to score has a 51% chance. Both sides scored in 12 of Watford last 20 games and 12 of Stoke City last 20.

How are Watford playing?

How are Stoke City playing?

What happened when Watford and Stoke City last met?

It ended Stoke City 3, Watford 1. In the last 2 meetings Watford won 1 and Stoke City won 1.

What is the best bet for Watford vs Stoke City?

Watford to win at 7/5, with a 44% chance. That price pays about 6.3% more than our fair price.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.