Predictions › Bundesliga › Werder Bremen vs FC Augsburg

BundesligaSat 19 Sept, 13:30 UTC

Werder Bremen vs FC Augsburg prediction

Weserstadion

Werder BremenHome

1.64 : 1.58

expected goals

FC AugsburgAway

39%Bremen

25%Draw

36%Augsburg

Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals

1.19

Quick answer

Our prediction for Werder Bremen vs FC Augsburg is Werder Bremen to win, with a 39% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.19.

Prediction: Werder Bremen to win
Chance: 39%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Werder Bremen 1.6, FC Augsburg 1.6
Best bet: Over 1.5 goals at 1.19
Both teams to score: 65%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals

84% chanceFair price 1.192 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Werder Bremen to win and Over 2.5

28% chanceFair price 3.611 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Werder Bremen 39%, the draw 25% and FC Augsburg 36%. The bookmakers agree and make Werder Bremen the favourite at 2.20.
2
Recent form
Werder Bremen took 3 points from their last 5 games and FC Augsburg took 12 from 5. FC Augsburg come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Werder Bremen won 3 of their last 11 games at home. FC Augsburg won 5 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
Werder Bremen score 1.1 goals a game and let in 1.7. FC Augsburg score 1.8 and let in 1.5. Over 2.5 goals landed in 10 of Werder Bremen games and 13 of FC Augsburg games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, Werder Bremen won 0 and FC Augsburg won 1 with 1 draw. The last one ended Werder Bremen 1, FC Augsburg 3.
6
The safest bet
Over 1.5 goals has a 84% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

Match preview

Werder Bremen vs FC Augsburg: Werder Bremen shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Werder Bremen host FC Augsburg in the Bundesliga on Sat 19 Sept, 13:30 at Weserstadion. Our prediction for Werder Bremen vs FC Augsburg is Werder Bremen to win, with a 39% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.19.

Werder Bremen form

Werder Bremen have 5 wins, 3 draws and 12 losses in their last 20 games, with 23 goals scored and 34 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 2 draws and 6 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, L, L, newest first.

FC Augsburg form

FC Augsburg have 10 wins, 5 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 35 goals scored and 30 conceded. Away from home they have 5 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, L, W, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Werder Bremen won 0, FC Augsburg won 1 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Werder Bremen 1, FC Augsburg 3.

Our call

We expect Werder Bremen to score about 1.6 goals and FC Augsburg about 1.6. That points to Werder Bremen to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.19. Our bold bet is Werder Bremen to win and Over 2.5 at 3.61.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Bremen	Augsburg
Games played	20	20
Wins	5	10
Draws	3	5
Losses	12	5
Goals scored	23	35
Goals conceded	34	30
Scored per game	1.1	1.8
Conceded per game	1.7	1.5
Home record	3W 2D 6L	5W 4D 1L
Away record	2W 1D 6L	5W 1D 4L
Clean sheets	10%	15%
Both teams scored	55%	70%
Over 2.5 goals	50%	65%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Werder Bremen to win	39%	2.56	2.20	-14.2%
A Draw	25%	4.07	3.75	-7.9%
FC Augsburg to win	36%	2.75	2.65	-3.5%
Over 3.5 goals	41%	2.43	2.25	-7.3%
Under 3.5 goals	59%	1.70	1.61	-5.6%
Werder Bremen -0.5	41%	2.41	2.15	-10.9%
FC Augsburg +0.5	59%	1.71	1.59	-7.0%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	84%	1.19
Over 2.5 goals	62%	1.60
Over 3.5 goals	40%	2.49
Both teams to score	65%	1.55
Werder Bremen or Draw	64%	1.57
FC Augsburg or Draw	61%	1.64
Werder Bremen to win and Over 2.5	28%	3.61
FC Augsburg to win and Over 2.5	26%	3.88
Werder Bremen clean sheet	21%	4.86
FC Augsburg clean sheet	19%	5.16

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-111.0%

2-18.5%

1-28.2%

2-26.7%

1-05.9%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Werder Bremen vs FC Augsburg?

Our prediction for Werder Bremen vs FC Augsburg is Werder Bremen to win, with a 39% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.19.

What is the score prediction for Werder Bremen vs FC Augsburg?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 1-2. We expect Werder Bremen to score 1.6 goals and FC Augsburg 1.6.

Will both teams score in Werder Bremen vs FC Augsburg?

Both teams to score has a 65% chance. Both sides scored in 11 of Werder Bremen last 20 games and 14 of FC Augsburg last 20.

How are Werder Bremen playing?

How are FC Augsburg playing?

What happened when Werder Bremen and FC Augsburg last met?

It ended Werder Bremen 1, FC Augsburg 3. In the last 2 meetings Werder Bremen won 0 and FC Augsburg won 1.

What is the best bet for Werder Bremen vs FC Augsburg?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.19, with a 84% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.