Western Kentucky Hilltoppers vs Georgia Bulldogs prediction

The eagle's three picks

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Eagle safe pick

Under 65.5 points

74% chanceFair price -2771 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1. 1
   What our numbers say

   The model gives Georgia Bulldogs 99% and Western Kentucky Hilltoppers 1%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

2. 2
   Recent form

   Georgia Bulldogs won 4 of their last 5 and Western Kentucky Hilltoppers won 2 of their last 5. Georgia Bulldogs come in with the better run.

3. 3
   Home and away

   Georgia Bulldogs won 5 of their last 7 games at home. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers won 4 of their last 7 on the road.

4. 4
   Scoring

   Georgia Bulldogs score 33.8 points a game and let in 18.2. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers score 25.5 and let in 24.6. Their recent games average 51.9 and 50.2 points in total, and the market line is 55.5.

5. 5
   The safest bet

   Under 65.5 points has a 74% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

Team records

Last 13 games in all competitions.

Note: W is a win and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against Draft Kings

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Spread and total at every line

Note: A spread gives one team a head start. Georgia +3.5 wins if Georgia win or lose by 3 or fewer. If the result lands exactly on the line, your stake comes back.