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How Fernando Tatis Jr. Can Save the Padres' Season

Down 2-0 against the Brewers, the Padres need star outfielder Fernando Tatis Jr. to recapture his regular-season form and spark the offense.

The EagleEyeOdds deskWritten from the match data, checked against our model before it goes out

The Padres' Backs Against the Wall

The San Diego Padres are in a tough spot. After losing the first two games of the National League Division Series in Milwaukee, they return home needing a major turnaround. Only three of 36 teams in playoff history have come back to win after losing the first two games on the road under the current playoff format.

To pull off the comeback, San Diego needs its offense to wake up. The Padres scored just five runs in Milwaukee, going 3 for 18 with runners in scoring position. Manager Craig Stammen remains hopeful, pointing to how the team turned its season around after a slow start in July. "We've been resilient all year," Stammen said.

Tatis Looks to Reclaim His Spark

If the Padres are going to rally, it will likely start with Fernando Tatis Jr. As shortstop Xander Bogaerts put it, "He goes, we go."

Tatis had a spectacular start to the postseason a week ago, hitting a leadoff home run in the opener. Since then, however, he has gone just 1 for 14. This is not the first time Tatis has had to fight through a slump this year.

Fifty games into the season, Tatis ranked near the bottom of the league in slugging percentage and did not hit his first home run until May 30. He was constantly tweaking his swing, which he admitted can sometimes be a curse. "It was determination," Tatis said of his recovery. "It would've been easy just to get carried over by the emotions and say it was a bad year, but, man, we just kept working."

Rebuilding the Swing

To get back on track during the regular season, Tatis sought advice from future Hall of Famer Albert Pujols and minor league hitting coach Raúl Padrón. Pujols, who managed Tatis in the World Baseball Classic, noticed Tatis was using too much of his upper body and getting stuck in his swing.

Pujols shared his own experiences of struggling early in his career, which helped boost the confidence of Tatis. The two analyzed video daily, helping Tatis load into his back leg and use his lower body. Tatis eventually finished the regular season with a .289 batting average and 25 home runs. Now, the Padres need that same determination to save their postseason.

What it means for the next game

Milwaukee Brewers at San Diego Padres (MLB, Wed, 07 Oct): San Diego Padres win 51%, Milwaukee Brewers win 49%; projected score San Diego Padres 4, Milwaukee Brewers 3. Our safest pick: Brewers +3.5.

Milwaukee Brewers at San Diego Padres (MLB, Thu, 08 Oct): San Diego Padres win 50%, Milwaukee Brewers win 50%; projected score San Diego Padres 4, Milwaukee Brewers 4. Our safest pick: Brewers +2.5.

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