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Ivory CoastWho Will Win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Narrowing Down the Nominees
With Messi and Ronaldo out of the picture, we break down the 30 man shortlist to see who actually deserves the 2026 Ballon d'Or.
The Post Messi and Ronaldo Era
For most of the past fifteen years, the Ballon d'Or was dominated by Lionel Messi, who won it eight times, and Cristiano Ronaldo, who won it five times. Even Kylian Mbappé once admitted he could not top them. Mbappé told writer Simon Kuper that trying to do better than them was a lack of awareness, saying, "Those players are incomparable. They have broken all laws of statistics."
Now, Messi and Ronaldo are no longer in the running. Ronaldo has not finished in the top three in the 2020s, and Messi last won in 2023. The race for the 2026 award is wide open, with voting having closed on Monday. The winner will be judged on achievements from the start of the 2025 to 2026 club season to the end of the 2026 World Cup.
Real Madrid Stars Miss Out
Thirty players made the shortlist, but we can rule out several big names. Kylian Mbappé, Jude Bellingham, and Vinícius Júnior are out. Although Mbappé scored ten goals to win the World Cup Golden Boot, his club team underachieved.
Since Mbappé joined Real Madrid, the team only won the UEFA Super Cup and the FIFA Intercontinental Cup in 2024. Those trophies were actually tied to achievements before he arrived. Real Madrid finished behind Barcelona in both of his seasons and failed to get past the Champions League quarterfinals. Mbappé and Vinícius Júnior also struggled to contribute on defense.
No Trophies, No Award
History shows you need silverware to win. This rules out Bruno Fernandes, despite his Premier League assists record. It also rules out Julián Quiñones, who scored four World Cup goals for Mexico and thirty three goals in Saudi Arabia. Sadio Mané is out too, because Senegal was stripped of their Africa Cup of Nations title in March.
Defenders and midfielders who only won one trophy are also unlikely to win. Arsenal won the Premier League, but Declan Rice, William Saliba, and Gabriel Magalhães do not score enough goals to claim the prize. Marc Cucurella is also out despite an error free World Cup with Spain.
World Cup Failures and Team Dynamics
In a World Cup year, the tournament is everything. Players like Khvicha Kvaratskhelia did not play in it. Marquinhos suffered with a disappointing Brazil team, and Ecuador's Willian Pacho went out in the round of thirty two. Portugal's João Neves, Nuno Mendes, and Vitinha also failed to impress.
Finally, you must be the best player on your club team. This eliminates stars like Luis Díaz, Pau Cubarsí, Fabián Ruiz, Ferran Torres, and Dayot Upamecano. This leaves Lamine Yamal and Harry Kane as the top candidates to take the crown.
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