Predictions › Germany › 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs Holstein Kiel

2. BundesligaSun 13 Sept, 11:30 Germany time

1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs Holstein Kiel prediction

Voith-Arena

1. FC Heidenheim 1846Home

1.67 : 1.45

expected goals

Holstein KielAway

42%Heidenheim

25%Draw

33%Holstein Kiel

Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals

1.17

Quick answer

Our prediction for 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs Holstein Kiel is 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 to win, with a 42% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.17.

Prediction: 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 to win
Chance: 42%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 1.7, Holstein Kiel 1.4
Best bet: Over 1.5 goals at 1.17
Both teams to score: 63%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals

85% chanceFair price 1.172 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

1. FC Heidenheim 1846 to win and Over 2.5

28% chanceFair price 3.551 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 42%, the draw 25% and Holstein Kiel 33%. The bookmakers agree and make 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 the favourite at 2.25.
2
Recent form
1. FC Heidenheim 1846 took 9 points from their last 5 games and Holstein Kiel took 3 from 5. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
1. FC Heidenheim 1846 won 4 of their last 10 games at home. Holstein Kiel won 3 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
1. FC Heidenheim 1846 score 1.8 goals a game and let in 2.1. Holstein Kiel score 1.4 and let in 1.7. Over 2.5 goals landed in 13 of 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 games and 14 of Holstein Kiel games in that run.
5
The safest bet
Over 1.5 goals has a 85% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Heidenheimrecent form+1%

Heidenheim form W W L L WHolstein Kiel form D L W D DHome edge in this league 22% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs Holstein Kiel: 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

1. FC Heidenheim 1846 host Holstein Kiel in the 2. Bundesliga on Sun 13 Sept, 11:30 at Voith-Arena. Our prediction for 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs Holstein Kiel is 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 to win, with a 42% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.17.

1. FC Heidenheim 1846 form

1. FC Heidenheim 1846 have 6 wins, 4 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 35 goals scored and 43 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, L, W, L, newest first.

Holstein Kiel form

Holstein Kiel have 5 wins, 6 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 28 goals scored and 34 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, L, D, D, L, newest first.

Our call

We expect 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 to score about 1.7 goals and Holstein Kiel about 1.4. That points to 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.17. Our bold bet is 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 to win and Over 2.5 at 3.55.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Heidenheim	Holstein Kiel
Games played	20	20
Wins	6	5
Draws	4	6
Losses	10	9
Goals scored	35	28
Goals conceded	43	34
Scored per game	1.8	1.4
Conceded per game	2.1	1.7
Home record	4W 2D 4L	2W 4D 4L
Away record	2W 2D 6L	3W 2D 5L
Clean sheets	10%	20%
Both teams scored	60%	70%
Over 2.5 goals	65%	70%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
1. FC Heidenheim 1846 to win	39%	2.54	2.25	-11.6%
A Draw	23%	4.28	3.75	-12.4%
Holstein Kiel to win	31%	3.23	2.85	-11.7%
Over 3.5 goals	38%	2.62	2.20	-16.1%
Under 3.5 goals	59%	1.68	1.65	-2.3%
1. FC Heidenheim 1846 -0.5	40%	2.52	2.15	-14.7%
Holstein Kiel +0.5	58%	1.73	1.61	-7.1%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	83%	1.21
Over 2.5 goals	60%	1.65
Over 3.5 goals	38%	2.62
Both teams to score	63%	1.59
1. FC Heidenheim 1846 or Draw	67%	1.49
Holstein Kiel or Draw	58%	1.73
1. FC Heidenheim 1846 to win and Over 2.5	30%	3.39
Holstein Kiel to win and Over 2.5	22%	4.45
1. FC Heidenheim 1846 clean sheet	23%	4.28
Holstein Kiel clean sheet	19%	5.34

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-111.3%

2-18.9%

1-27.7%

1-06.7%

2-26.5%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs Holstein Kiel?

What is the score prediction for 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs Holstein Kiel?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 1-2. We expect 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 to score 1.7 goals and Holstein Kiel 1.4.

Will both teams score in 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs Holstein Kiel?

Both teams to score has a 63% chance. Both sides scored in 12 of 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 last 20 games and 14 of Holstein Kiel last 20.

How are 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 playing?

How are Holstein Kiel playing?

What is the best bet for 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs Holstein Kiel?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.17, with a 85% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Heidenheim against Holstein Kiel. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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