Predictions › Germany › 1. FC Nürnberg vs VfL Wolfsburg

2. BundesligaSat 10 Oct, 18:30 Germany time

1. FC Nürnberg vs VfL Wolfsburg prediction

Max-Morlock-Stadion

1. FC NürnbergHome

1.55 : 1.46

expected goals

VfL WolfsburgAway

39%1. FC Nürnberg

26%Draw

35%Wolfsburg

Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals

1.27

Quick answer

Our prediction for 1. FC Nürnberg vs VfL Wolfsburg is 1. FC Nürnberg to win, with a 39% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.27.

Prediction: 1. FC Nürnberg to win
Chance: 39%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: 1. FC Nürnberg 1.6, VfL Wolfsburg 1.5
Best bet: Over 1.5 goals at 1.27
Both teams to score: 61%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals

78% chanceFair price 1.272 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

1. FC Nürnberg to win and Over 2.5

26% chanceFair price 3.921 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives 1. FC Nürnberg 39%, the draw 26% and VfL Wolfsburg 35%. The bookmakers see it the other way and make VfL Wolfsburg the favourite at 2.45, so take care with this one.
2
Recent form
1. FC Nürnberg took 13 points from their last 5 games and VfL Wolfsburg took 10 from 5. 1. FC Nürnberg come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
1. FC Nürnberg won 7 of their last 9 games at home. VfL Wolfsburg won 4 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
1. FC Nürnberg score 2.0 goals a game and let in 1.1. VfL Wolfsburg score 1.6 and let in 1.8. Over 2.5 goals landed in 12 of 1. FC Nürnberg games and 12 of VfL Wolfsburg games in that run.
5
The safest bet
Over 1.5 goals has a 78% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

1. FC Nürnbergrecent form+6%
Wolfsburgrecent form+3%

1. FC Nürnberg form W W D W WWolfsburg form W L D W WHome edge in this league 22% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

1. FC Nürnberg vs VfL Wolfsburg: 1. FC Nürnberg shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

1. FC Nürnberg host VfL Wolfsburg in the 2. Bundesliga on Sat 10 Oct, 18:30 at Max-Morlock-Stadion. Our prediction for 1. FC Nürnberg vs VfL Wolfsburg is 1. FC Nürnberg to win, with a 39% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.27.

1. FC Nürnberg form

1. FC Nürnberg have 10 wins, 6 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 40 goals scored and 23 conceded. At home they have 7 wins, 0 draws and 2 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, W, D, W, W, newest first.

VfL Wolfsburg form

VfL Wolfsburg have 5 wins, 6 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 32 goals scored and 35 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, L, D, W, W, newest first.

Our call

We expect 1. FC Nürnberg to score about 1.6 goals and VfL Wolfsburg about 1.5. That points to 1. FC Nürnberg to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.27. Our bold bet is 1. FC Nürnberg to win and Over 2.5 at 3.92.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	1. FC Nürnberg	Wolfsburg
Games played	20	20
Wins	10	5
Draws	6	6
Losses	4	9
Goals scored	40	32
Goals conceded	23	35
Scored per game	2.0	1.6
Conceded per game	1.1	1.8
Home record	7W 0D 2L	1W 3D 6L
Away record	3W 6D 2L	4W 3D 3L
Clean sheets	25%	15%
Both teams scored	65%	65%
Over 2.5 goals	60%	60%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
1. FC Nürnberg to win	37%	2.74	2.50	-8.7%
A Draw	25%	4.02	3.60	-10.4%
VfL Wolfsburg to win	34%	2.98	2.45	-17.9%
Over 3.5 goals	42%	2.38	1.87	-21.4%
Under 3.5 goals	52%	1.93	1.80	-6.9%
1. FC Nürnberg +0.5	60%	1.68	1.49	-11.2%
VfL Wolfsburg -0.5	36%	2.80	2.30	-17.8%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	81%	1.24
Over 2.5 goals	58%	1.73
Over 3.5 goals	36%	2.81
Both teams to score	61%	1.63
1. FC Nürnberg or Draw	65%	1.55
VfL Wolfsburg or Draw	61%	1.64
1. FC Nürnberg to win and Over 2.5	26%	3.81
VfL Wolfsburg to win and Over 2.5	24%	4.24
1. FC Nürnberg clean sheet	23%	4.32
VfL Wolfsburg clean sheet	21%	4.70

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-111.8%

2-18.6%

1-28.2%

1-06.9%

0-16.5%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win 1. FC Nürnberg vs VfL Wolfsburg?

Our prediction for 1. FC Nürnberg vs VfL Wolfsburg is 1. FC Nürnberg to win, with a 39% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.27.

What is the score prediction for 1. FC Nürnberg vs VfL Wolfsburg?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 1-2. We expect 1. FC Nürnberg to score 1.6 goals and VfL Wolfsburg 1.5.

Will both teams score in 1. FC Nürnberg vs VfL Wolfsburg?

Both teams to score has a 61% chance. Both sides scored in 13 of 1. FC Nürnberg last 20 games and 13 of VfL Wolfsburg last 20.

How are 1. FC Nürnberg playing?

How are VfL Wolfsburg playing?

What is the best bet for 1. FC Nürnberg vs VfL Wolfsburg?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.27, with a 78% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in 1. FC Nürnberg against Wolfsburg. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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