EagleEyeOdds eagleEagleEyeOddsToday's picks
PredictionsBest bets by countryKenyaNigeriaGhanaSouth AfricaUnited KingdomUnited StatesIndiaTanzaniaUgandaZambiaCameroonIvory CoastAll 54 countriesNewsOur recordHow Eagle 2.0 worksResponsible gambling
Predictions › Germany › 1. FC Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund
BundesligaSat 17 Oct, 13:30 Germany time

1. FC Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund prediction

Stadion An der Alten Försterei

1. FC Union BerlinHome
1.16 : 2.04
expected goals
Borussia DortmundAway
21%Union Berlin
22%Draw
57%Dortmund
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.24

Quick answer

Our prediction for 1. FC Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund is Borussia Dortmund to win, with a 57% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.24.

Prediction
Borussia Dortmund to win
Chance
57%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
1. FC Union Berlin 1.2, Borussia Dortmund 2.0
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.24
Both teams to score
60%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
81% chanceFair price 1.242 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Borussia Dortmund to win and Over 2.5
38% chanceFair price 2.631 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives 1. FC Union Berlin 21%, the draw 22% and Borussia Dortmund 57%. The bookmakers agree and make Borussia Dortmund the favourite at 1.63.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    1. FC Union Berlin took 4 points from their last 5 games and Borussia Dortmund took 15 from 5. Borussia Dortmund come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    1. FC Union Berlin won 2 of their last 10 games at home. Borussia Dortmund won 5 of their last 9 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    1. FC Union Berlin score 1.2 goals a game and let in 2.4. Borussia Dortmund score 2.1 and let in 1.1. Over 2.5 goals landed in 15 of 1. FC Union Berlin games and 12 of Borussia Dortmund games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 1 meeting, 1. FC Union Berlin won 0 and Borussia Dortmund won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended 1. FC Union Berlin 0, Borussia Dortmund 3.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 81% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Union Berlinrecent form-3%
  • Dortmundrecent form+7%
Union Berlin form L L L D WDortmund form W W W W WHome edge in this league 24% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

1. FC Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund: Borussia Dortmund are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

1. FC Union Berlin host Borussia Dortmund in the Bundesliga on Sat 17 Oct, 13:30 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei. Our prediction for 1. FC Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund is Borussia Dortmund to win, with a 57% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.24.

1. FC Union Berlin form

1. FC Union Berlin have 4 wins, 4 draws and 12 losses in their last 20 games, with 24 goals scored and 48 conceded. At home they have 2 wins, 4 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, D, W, newest first.

Borussia Dortmund form

Borussia Dortmund have 14 wins, 1 draw and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 42 goals scored and 22 conceded. Away from home they have 5 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, W, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. 1. FC Union Berlin won 0, Borussia Dortmund won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished 1. FC Union Berlin 0, Borussia Dortmund 3.

Our call

We expect 1. FC Union Berlin to score about 1.2 goals and Borussia Dortmund about 2.0. That points to Borussia Dortmund to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.24. Our bold bet is Borussia Dortmund to win and Over 2.5 at 2.63.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

Union BerlinDortmund
Games played2020
Wins414
Draws41
Losses125
Goals scored2442
Goals conceded4822
Scored per game1.22.1
Conceded per game2.41.1
Home record2W 4D 4L9W 0D 2L
Away record2W 0D 8L5W 1D 3L
Clean sheets15%45%
Both teams scored60%45%
Over 2.5 goals75%60%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
1. FC Union Berlin to win20%4.924.10-16.7%
A Draw22%4.544.00-11.9%
Borussia Dortmund to win53%1.881.63-13.6%
Over 3.5 goals39%2.552.15-15.7%
Under 3.5 goals54%1.851.63-12.2%
1. FC Union Berlin +0.540%2.502.10-16.1%
Borussia Dortmund -0.553%1.881.57-16.3%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals83%1.20
Over 2.5 goals62%1.61
Over 3.5 goals40%2.51
Both teams to score60%1.66
1. FC Union Berlin or Draw43%2.33
Borussia Dortmund or Draw79%1.26
1. FC Union Berlin to win and Over 2.514%7.28
Borussia Dortmund to win and Over 2.541%2.45
1. FC Union Berlin clean sheet13%7.69
Borussia Dortmund clean sheet31%3.20

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-110.2%
1-29.8%
0-28.5%
0-17.7%
1-36.7%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Latest news on these teams

All news
Premier League

Arsenal Eye Dortmund Forward Beier As Spurs Target Gibbs White

Arsenal are tracking Borussia Dortmund forward Maximilian Beier, while Tottenham Hotspur consider a massive January move for Morgan Gibbs White.

21 Sept 2026
Champions League

Dortmund Teenager Karetsas Back In Training After Health Scare

Borussia Dortmund midfielder Konstantinos Karetsas has returned to training following a medical scare on his Champions League debut.

16 Sept 2026

Questions people ask

Who will win 1. FC Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund?

Our prediction for 1. FC Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund is Borussia Dortmund to win, with a 57% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.24.

What is the score prediction for 1. FC Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-2 and 0-2. We expect 1. FC Union Berlin to score 1.2 goals and Borussia Dortmund 2.0.

Will both teams score in 1. FC Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund?

Both teams to score has a 60% chance. Both sides scored in 12 of 1. FC Union Berlin last 20 games and 9 of Borussia Dortmund last 20.

How are 1. FC Union Berlin playing?

1. FC Union Berlin have 4 wins, 4 draws and 12 losses in their last 20 games, with 24 goals scored and 48 conceded. At home they have 2 wins, 4 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, D, W, newest first.

How are Borussia Dortmund playing?

Borussia Dortmund have 14 wins, 1 draw and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 42 goals scored and 22 conceded. Away from home they have 5 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, W, W, newest first.

What happened when 1. FC Union Berlin and Borussia Dortmund last met?

It ended 1. FC Union Berlin 0, Borussia Dortmund 3. In the last 1 meeting 1. FC Union Berlin won 0 and Borussia Dortmund won 1.

What is the best bet for 1. FC Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.24, with a 81% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Union Berlin against Dortmund. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
  • 18 plus only. Betting is for adults. In some countries the legal age is higher and in some it is not allowed at all. You alone are responsible for checking the law where you live.
  • Prices move. The odds shown were read from a bookmaker feed and may already be different. Always check the price in your own account before you place anything.
  • No advice for your money. We are not financial advisers and we do not know your situation. Nothing here is financial advice or a recommendation to stake any amount.
  • Betting can harm you. If it stops being fun, if you chase losses, or if you hide it from people close to you, stop and get help. Free and private support is available from BeGambleAware, GamCare and Gamblers Anonymous. Read our responsible gambling page for tools that block betting sites.

Full terms are on our disclaimer and terms pages.

Note: Never stake money you need for rent, food, bills or anyone who depends on you.