Predictions › Norway › Aalesund vs Sandefjord

EliteserienSat 31 Oct, 17:00 Norway time

Aalesund vs Sandefjord prediction

Color Line Stadium

AalesundHome

1.79 : 2.08

expected goals

SandefjordAway

33%Aalesund

22%Draw

45%Sandefjord

Eagle safe pickOver 2.5 goals

1.33

Quick answer

Our prediction for Aalesund vs Sandefjord is Sandefjord to win, with a 45% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 2.5 goals at 1.33.

Prediction: Sandefjord to win
Chance: 45%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Aalesund 1.8, Sandefjord 2.1
Best bet: Over 2.5 goals at 1.33
Both teams to score: 73%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 2.5 goals

75% chanceFair price 1.332 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Sandefjord to win and Over 2.5

36% chanceFair price 2.751 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Aalesund 33%, the draw 22% and Sandefjord 45%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.
2
Recent form
Aalesund took 9 points from their last 5 games and Sandefjord took 5 from 5. Aalesund come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Aalesund won 2 of their last 10 games at home. Sandefjord won 2 of their last 9 on the road.
4
Goals
Aalesund score 1.6 goals a game and let in 2.1. Sandefjord score 1.0 and let in 1.3. Over 2.5 goals landed in 13 of Aalesund games and 9 of Sandefjord games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 1 meeting, Aalesund won 0 and Sandefjord won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended Sandefjord 1, Aalesund 0.
6
The safest bet
Over 2.5 goals has a 75% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Nothing moved this one. Both teams are rested, form is level and there is no team news we can act on, so the number is what the results and the price say on their own.

Aalesund form D L W L WSandefjord form D D W L DHome edge in this league 31% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Aalesund vs Sandefjord: Sandefjord shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Aalesund host Sandefjord in the Eliteserien on Sat 31 Oct, 17:00 at Color Line Stadium. Our prediction for Aalesund vs Sandefjord is Sandefjord to win, with a 45% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 2.5 goals at 1.33.

Aalesund form

Aalesund have 5 wins, 8 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 33 goals scored and 42 conceded. At home they have 2 wins, 6 draws and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, L, W, L, W, newest first.

Sandefjord form

Sandefjord have 5 wins, 6 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 20 goals scored and 26 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 1 draw and 6 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, D, W, L, D, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Aalesund won 0, Sandefjord won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Sandefjord 1, Aalesund 0.

Our call

We expect Aalesund to score about 1.8 goals and Sandefjord about 2.1. That points to Sandefjord to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 2.5 goals at 1.33. Our bold bet is Sandefjord to win and Over 2.5 at 2.75.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Aalesund	Sandefjord
Games played	20	20
Wins	5	5
Draws	8	6
Losses	7	9
Goals scored	33	20
Goals conceded	42	26
Scored per game	1.6	1.0
Conceded per game	2.1	1.3
Home record	2W 6D 2L	3W 5D 3L
Away record	3W 2D 5L	2W 1D 6L
Clean sheets	10%	30%
Both teams scored	80%	50%
Over 2.5 goals	65%	45%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	90%	1.11
Over 2.5 goals	74%	1.35
Over 3.5 goals	54%	1.85
Both teams to score	73%	1.36
Aalesund or Draw	55%	1.81
Sandefjord or Draw	67%	1.50
Aalesund to win and Over 2.5	27%	3.73
Sandefjord to win and Over 2.5	36%	2.75
Aalesund clean sheet	12%	8.01
Sandefjord clean sheet	17%	5.99

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-18.2%

1-28.1%

2-27.2%

2-16.9%

1-35.6%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Aalesund vs Sandefjord?

Our prediction for Aalesund vs Sandefjord is Sandefjord to win, with a 45% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 2.5 goals at 1.33.

What is the score prediction for Aalesund vs Sandefjord?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-2 and 2-2. We expect Aalesund to score 1.8 goals and Sandefjord 2.1.

Will both teams score in Aalesund vs Sandefjord?

Both teams to score has a 73% chance. Both sides scored in 16 of Aalesund last 20 games and 10 of Sandefjord last 20.

How are Aalesund playing?

How are Sandefjord playing?

What happened when Aalesund and Sandefjord last met?

It ended Sandefjord 1, Aalesund 0. In the last 1 meeting Aalesund won 0 and Sandefjord won 1.

What is the best bet for Aalesund vs Sandefjord?

Over 2.5 goals at 1.33, with a 75% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Aalesund against Sandefjord. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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