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Predictions › Norway › Aalesund vs Sarpsborg FK
EliteserienSun 11 Oct, 15:00 Norway time

Aalesund vs Sarpsborg FK prediction

Color Line Stadium

AalesundHome
1.59 : 1.60
expected goals
Sarpsborg FKAway
38%Aalesund
25%Draw
38%Sarpsborg FK
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.24

Quick answer

Our prediction for Aalesund vs Sarpsborg FK is Sarpsborg FK to win, with a 38% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.24.

Prediction
Sarpsborg FK to win
Chance
38%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Aalesund 1.6, Sarpsborg FK 1.6
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.24
Both teams to score
64%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
81% chanceFair price 1.242 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Sarpsborg FK to win and Over 2.5
26% chanceFair price 3.861 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Aalesund 38%, the draw 25% and Sarpsborg FK 38%. The bookmakers agree and make Sarpsborg FK the favourite at 2.45.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Aalesund took 7 points from their last 5 games and Sarpsborg FK took 3 from 5. Aalesund come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Aalesund won 2 of their last 10 games at home. Sarpsborg FK won 1 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Aalesund score 1.5 goals a game and let in 2.0. Sarpsborg FK score 1.1 and let in 1.4. Over 2.5 goals landed in 12 of Aalesund games and 11 of Sarpsborg FK games in that run.

  5. 5
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 81% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Sarpsborg FKrecent form-3%
Aalesund form W L W L DSarpsborg FK form L D D D LHome edge in this league 34% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Aalesund vs Sarpsborg FK: Sarpsborg FK shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Aalesund host Sarpsborg FK in the Eliteserien on Sun 11 Oct, 15:00 at Color Line Stadium. Our prediction for Aalesund vs Sarpsborg FK is Sarpsborg FK to win, with a 38% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.24.

Aalesund form

Aalesund have 4 wins, 9 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 30 goals scored and 41 conceded. At home they have 2 wins, 6 draws and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, L, W, L, D, newest first.

Sarpsborg FK form

Sarpsborg FK have 5 wins, 7 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 22 goals scored and 29 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 4 draws and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, D, D, D, L, newest first.

Our call

We expect Aalesund to score about 1.6 goals and Sarpsborg FK about 1.6. That points to Sarpsborg FK to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.24. Our bold bet is Sarpsborg FK to win and Over 2.5 at 3.86.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

AalesundSarpsborg FK
Games played2020
Wins45
Draws97
Losses78
Goals scored3022
Goals conceded4129
Scored per game1.51.1
Conceded per game2.01.4
Home record2W 6D 2L4W 3D 3L
Away record2W 3D 5L1W 4D 5L
Clean sheets10%20%
Both teams scored80%65%
Over 2.5 goals60%55%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
Aalesund to win36%2.812.50-11.2%
A Draw24%4.133.70-10.4%
Sarpsborg FK to win36%2.802.45-12.4%
Over 3.5 goals41%2.422.00-17.5%
Under 3.5 goals53%1.891.69-10.7%
Aalesund +0.558%1.711.50-12.3%
Sarpsborg FK -0.537%2.722.30-15.5%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals83%1.20
Over 2.5 goals62%1.62
Over 3.5 goals39%2.53
Both teams to score64%1.56
Aalesund or Draw62%1.61
Sarpsborg FK or Draw62%1.60
Aalesund to win and Over 2.526%3.80
Sarpsborg FK to win and Over 2.527%3.77
Aalesund clean sheet20%4.94
Sarpsborg FK clean sheet20%4.91

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-111.1%
1-28.4%
2-18.3%
2-26.7%
0-16.0%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Aalesund vs Sarpsborg FK?

Our prediction for Aalesund vs Sarpsborg FK is Sarpsborg FK to win, with a 38% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.24.

What is the score prediction for Aalesund vs Sarpsborg FK?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-2 and 2-1. We expect Aalesund to score 1.6 goals and Sarpsborg FK 1.6.

Will both teams score in Aalesund vs Sarpsborg FK?

Both teams to score has a 64% chance. Both sides scored in 16 of Aalesund last 20 games and 13 of Sarpsborg FK last 20.

How are Aalesund playing?

Aalesund have 4 wins, 9 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 30 goals scored and 41 conceded. At home they have 2 wins, 6 draws and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, L, W, L, D, newest first.

How are Sarpsborg FK playing?

Sarpsborg FK have 5 wins, 7 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 22 goals scored and 29 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 4 draws and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, D, D, D, L, newest first.

What is the best bet for Aalesund vs Sarpsborg FK?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.24, with a 81% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Aalesund against Sarpsborg FK. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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