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Predictions › United Kingdom › Aberdeen vs St Johnstone
Scottish PremiershipSun 11 Oct, 14:00 United Kingdom time

Aberdeen vs St Johnstone prediction

Pittodrie Stadium

AberdeenHome
1.45 : 1.12
expected goals
St JohnstoneAway
44%Aberdeen
28%Draw
28%St Johnstone
Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals
1/3

Quick answer

Our prediction for Aberdeen vs St Johnstone is Aberdeen to win, with a 44% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1/3.

Prediction
Aberdeen to win
Chance
44%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Aberdeen 1.4, St Johnstone 1.1
Best bet
Under 3.5 goals at 1/3
Both teams to score
52%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals
75% chanceFair price 1/31 unit
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1
13% chanceFair price 13/21 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Aberdeen 44%, the draw 28% and St Johnstone 28%. The bookmakers agree and make Aberdeen the favourite at 11/10.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Aberdeen took 5 points from their last 5 games and St Johnstone took 5 from 5. Both sides come in with a similar run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Aberdeen won 4 of their last 10 games at home. St Johnstone won 0 of their last 3 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Aberdeen score 1.1 goals a game and let in 1.4. St Johnstone score 1.3 and let in 1.4. Over 2.5 goals landed in 8 of Aberdeen games and 3 of St Johnstone games in that run.

  5. 5
    The safest bet

    Under 3.5 goals has a 75% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Aberdeenrecent form+1%
  • St Johnstonerecent form-1%
Aberdeen form D W W D LSt Johnstone form D L W D LHome edge in this league 25% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Aberdeen vs St Johnstone: Aberdeen shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Aberdeen host St Johnstone in the Scottish Premiership on Sun 11 Oct, 14:00 at Pittodrie Stadium. Our prediction for Aberdeen vs St Johnstone is Aberdeen to win, with a 44% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1/3.

Aberdeen form

Aberdeen have 5 wins, 5 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 21 goals scored and 28 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, W, D, L, L, newest first.

St Johnstone form

St Johnstone have 2 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses in their last 7 games, with 9 goals scored and 10 conceded. Away from home they have 0 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses from 3. Their last 5 results read D, L, W, D, L, newest first.

Our call

We expect Aberdeen to score about 1.4 goals and St Johnstone about 1.1. That points to Aberdeen to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1/3. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 13/2.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

AberdeenSt Johnstone
Games played207
Wins52
Draws52
Losses103
Goals scored219
Goals conceded2810
Scored per game1.11.3
Conceded per game1.41.4
Home record4W 2D 4L2W 1D 1L
Away record1W 3D 6L0W 1D 2L
Clean sheets30%0%
Both teams scored40%71%
Over 2.5 goals40%43%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
Aberdeen to win41%7/511/10-11.1%
A Draw27%11/49/4-11.1%
St Johnstone to win28%13/511/5-11.7%
Over 2.5 goals46%6/55/6-14.6%
Under 2.5 goals48%21/204/5-12.8%
Aberdeen -0.541%7/521/20-15.0%
St Johnstone +0.553%10/118/13-14.5%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals73%4/11
Over 2.5 goals47%11/10
Over 3.5 goals26%3/1
Both teams to score52%10/11
Aberdeen or Draw72%2/5
St Johnstone or Draw56%4/5
Aberdeen to win and Over 2.526%3/1
St Johnstone to win and Over 2.516%11/2
Aberdeen clean sheet33%2/1
St Johnstone clean sheet23%10/3

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.2%
1-010.4%
2-19.0%
0-08.4%
2-08.1%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Aberdeen vs St Johnstone?

Our prediction for Aberdeen vs St Johnstone is Aberdeen to win, with a 44% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1/3.

What is the score prediction for Aberdeen vs St Johnstone?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 2-1. We expect Aberdeen to score 1.4 goals and St Johnstone 1.1.

Will both teams score in Aberdeen vs St Johnstone?

Both teams to score has a 52% chance. Both sides scored in 8 of Aberdeen last 20 games and 5 of St Johnstone last 7.

How are Aberdeen playing?

Aberdeen have 5 wins, 5 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 21 goals scored and 28 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, W, D, L, L, newest first.

How are St Johnstone playing?

St Johnstone have 2 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses in their last 7 games, with 9 goals scored and 10 conceded. Away from home they have 0 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses from 3. Their last 5 results read D, L, W, D, L, newest first.

What is the best bet for Aberdeen vs St Johnstone?

Under 3.5 goals at 1/3, with a 75% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Aberdeen against St Johnstone. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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  • Prices move. The odds shown were read from a bookmaker feed and may already be different. Always check the price in your own account before you place anything.
  • No advice for your money. We are not financial advisers and we do not know your situation. Nothing here is financial advice or a recommendation to stake any amount.
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