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Predictions › United Kingdom › Aberdeen vs St Mirren
Scottish PremiershipSat 17 Oct, 15:00 United Kingdom time

Aberdeen vs St Mirren prediction

Pittodrie Stadium

AberdeenHome
1.30 : 0.91
expected goals
St MirrenAway
45%Aberdeen
30%Draw
25%St Mirren
Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals
1/4

Quick answer

Our prediction for Aberdeen vs St Mirren is Aberdeen to win, with a 45% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1/4.

Prediction
Aberdeen to win
Chance
45%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Aberdeen 1.3, St Mirren 0.9
Best bet
Under 3.5 goals at 1/4
Both teams to score
44%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals
79% chanceFair price 1/42 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1
14% chanceFair price 13/21 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Aberdeen 45%, the draw 30% and St Mirren 25%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Aberdeen took 5 points from their last 5 games and St Mirren took 4 from 5. Aberdeen come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Aberdeen won 4 of their last 10 games at home. St Mirren won 4 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Aberdeen score 1.1 goals a game and let in 1.4. St Mirren score 0.8 and let in 1.4. Over 2.5 goals landed in 8 of Aberdeen games and 7 of St Mirren games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 4 meetings, Aberdeen won 1 and St Mirren won 2 with 1 draw. The last one ended Aberdeen 0, St Mirren 2.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Under 3.5 goals has a 79% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Aberdeenrecent form+1%
  • St Mirrenrecent form-3%
Aberdeen form D W W D LSt Mirren form L L L W DHome edge in this league 25% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Aberdeen vs St Mirren: Aberdeen shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Aberdeen host St Mirren in the Scottish Premiership on Sat 17 Oct, 15:00 at Pittodrie Stadium. Our prediction for Aberdeen vs St Mirren is Aberdeen to win, with a 45% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1/4.

Aberdeen form

Aberdeen have 5 wins, 5 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 21 goals scored and 28 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, W, D, L, L, newest first.

St Mirren form

St Mirren have 6 wins, 3 draws and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 17 goals scored and 29 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 1 draw and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, W, D, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 4 times in our records. Aberdeen won 1, St Mirren won 2 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Aberdeen 0, St Mirren 2.

Our call

We expect Aberdeen to score about 1.3 goals and St Mirren about 0.9. That points to Aberdeen to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1/4. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 13/2.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

AberdeenSt Mirren
Games played2020
Wins56
Draws53
Losses1011
Goals scored2117
Goals conceded2829
Scored per game1.10.8
Conceded per game1.41.4
Home record4W 2D 4L2W 2D 6L
Away record1W 3D 6L4W 1D 5L
Clean sheets30%25%
Both teams scored40%30%
Over 2.5 goals40%35%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals66%8/15
Over 2.5 goals38%13/8
Over 3.5 goals18%9/2
Both teams to score44%5/4
Aberdeen or Draw75%1/3
St Mirren or Draw55%4/5
Aberdeen to win and Over 2.522%7/2
St Mirren to win and Over 2.512%15/2
Aberdeen clean sheet40%6/4
St Mirren clean sheet27%11/4

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.7%
1-013.4%
0-011.7%
2-09.3%
0-19.2%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Aberdeen vs St Mirren?

Our prediction for Aberdeen vs St Mirren is Aberdeen to win, with a 45% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1/4.

What is the score prediction for Aberdeen vs St Mirren?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 0-0. We expect Aberdeen to score 1.3 goals and St Mirren 0.9.

Will both teams score in Aberdeen vs St Mirren?

Both teams to score has a 44% chance. Both sides scored in 8 of Aberdeen last 20 games and 6 of St Mirren last 20.

How are Aberdeen playing?

Aberdeen have 5 wins, 5 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 21 goals scored and 28 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, W, D, L, L, newest first.

How are St Mirren playing?

St Mirren have 6 wins, 3 draws and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 17 goals scored and 29 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 1 draw and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, W, D, newest first.

What happened when Aberdeen and St Mirren last met?

It ended Aberdeen 0, St Mirren 2. In the last 4 meetings Aberdeen won 1 and St Mirren won 2.

What is the best bet for Aberdeen vs St Mirren?

Under 3.5 goals at 1/4, with a 79% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Aberdeen against St Mirren. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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