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Predictions › Denmark › AC Horsens vs AGF
Danish SuperligaSun 20 Sept, 14:00 Denmark time

AC Horsens vs AGF prediction

Nordstern Arena Horsens

AC HorsensHome
1.29 : 1.57
expected goals
AGFAway
31%AC Horsens
26%Draw
43%AGF
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.25

Quick answer

Our prediction for AC Horsens vs AGF is AGF to win, with a 43% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.25.

Prediction
AGF to win
Chance
43%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
AC Horsens 1.3, AGF 1.6
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.25
Both teams to score
58%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
80% chanceFair price 1.252 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

AGF to win and Over 2.5
26% chanceFair price 3.781 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives AC Horsens 31%, the draw 26% and AGF 43%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    AC Horsens took 9 points from their last 5 games and AGF took 2 from 5. AC Horsens come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    AC Horsens won 1 of their last 4 games at home. AGF won 3 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    AC Horsens score 1.6 goals a game and let in 1.8. AGF score 1.6 and let in 1.3. Over 2.5 goals landed in 5 of AC Horsens games and 11 of AGF games in that run.

  5. 5
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 80% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • AC Horsensrecent form+1%
  • AGFrecent form-4%
  • AC Horsensrest between games-5%
AC Horsens form L W L W WAGF form D L L L DHome edge in this league 16% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

AC Horsens vs AGF: AGF shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

AC Horsens host AGF in the Danish Superliga on Sun 20 Sept, 14:00 at Nordstern Arena Horsens. Our prediction for AC Horsens vs AGF is AGF to win, with a 43% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.25.

AC Horsens form

AC Horsens have 3 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses in their last 8 games, with 13 goals scored and 14 conceded. At home they have 1 win, 1 draw and 2 losses from 4. Their last 5 results read L, W, L, W, W, newest first.

AGF form

AGF have 6 wins, 10 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 33 goals scored and 26 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, L, L, D, L, newest first.

Our call

We expect AC Horsens to score about 1.3 goals and AGF about 1.6. That points to AGF to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.25. Our bold bet is AGF to win and Over 2.5 at 3.78.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

AC HorsensAGF
Games played820
Wins36
Draws110
Losses44
Goals scored1333
Goals conceded1426
Scored per game1.61.6
Conceded per game1.81.3
Home record1W 1D 2L3W 6D 1L
Away record2W 0D 2L3W 4D 3L
Clean sheets0%15%
Both teams scored75%80%
Over 2.5 goals63%55%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals79%1.27
Over 2.5 goals55%1.83
Over 3.5 goals32%3.10
Both teams to score58%1.72
AC Horsens or Draw57%1.76
AGF or Draw69%1.44
AC Horsens to win and Over 2.519%5.20
AGF to win and Over 2.528%3.57
AC Horsens clean sheet21%4.83
AGF clean sheet27%3.64

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-112.3%
1-29.1%
0-18.3%
2-17.5%
0-27.1%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win AC Horsens vs AGF?

Our prediction for AC Horsens vs AGF is AGF to win, with a 43% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.25.

What is the score prediction for AC Horsens vs AGF?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-2 and 0-1. We expect AC Horsens to score 1.3 goals and AGF 1.6.

Will both teams score in AC Horsens vs AGF?

Both teams to score has a 58% chance. Both sides scored in 6 of AC Horsens last 8 games and 16 of AGF last 20.

How are AC Horsens playing?

AC Horsens have 3 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses in their last 8 games, with 13 goals scored and 14 conceded. At home they have 1 win, 1 draw and 2 losses from 4. Their last 5 results read L, W, L, W, W, newest first.

How are AGF playing?

AGF have 6 wins, 10 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 33 goals scored and 26 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, L, L, D, L, newest first.

What is the best bet for AC Horsens vs AGF?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.25, with a 80% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in AC Horsens against AGF. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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