Predictions › Portugal › Académico de Viseu vs Estoril

Primeira LigaSat 10 Oct, 19:30 Portugal time

Académico de Viseu vs Estoril prediction

Estádio do Fontelo

Académico de ViseuHome

1.43 : 1.23

expected goals

EstorilAway

41%Académico

27%Draw

32%Estoril

Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals

1.33

Quick answer

Our prediction for Académico de Viseu vs Estoril is Académico de Viseu to win, with a 41% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.33.

Prediction: Académico de Viseu to win
Chance: 41%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Académico de Viseu 1.4, Estoril 1.2
Best bet: Over 1.5 goals at 1.33
Both teams to score: 55%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals

75% chanceFair price 1.332 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1

13% chanceFair price 7.671 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Académico de Viseu 41%, the draw 27% and Estoril 32%. The bookmakers agree and make Académico de Viseu the favourite at 2.25.
2
Recent form
Académico de Viseu took 10 points from their last 5 games and Estoril took 1 from 5. Académico de Viseu come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Académico de Viseu won 1 of their last 3 games at home. Estoril won 1 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
Académico de Viseu score 1.3 goals a game and let in 1.3. Estoril score 0.7 and let in 1.6. Over 2.5 goals landed in 4 of Académico de Viseu games and 9 of Estoril games in that run.
5
The safest bet
Over 1.5 goals has a 75% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Académicorecent form+3%
Estorilrecent form-6%

Académico form W W W L DEstoril form L L D L LHome edge in this league 20% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Académico de Viseu vs Estoril: Académico de Viseu shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Académico de Viseu host Estoril in the Primeira Liga on Sat 10 Oct, 19:30 at Estádio do Fontelo. Our prediction for Académico de Viseu vs Estoril is Académico de Viseu to win, with a 41% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.33.

Académico de Viseu form

Académico de Viseu have 3 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses in their last 7 games, with 9 goals scored and 9 conceded. At home they have 1 win, 0 draws and 2 losses from 3. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, L, D, newest first.

Estoril form

Estoril have 2 wins, 5 draws and 13 losses in their last 20 games, with 14 goals scored and 32 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 2 draws and 7 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, D, L, L, newest first.

Our call

We expect Académico de Viseu to score about 1.4 goals and Estoril about 1.2. That points to Académico de Viseu to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.33. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7.67.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Académico	Estoril
Games played	7	20
Wins	3	2
Draws	2	5
Losses	2	13
Goals scored	9	14
Goals conceded	9	32
Scored per game	1.3	0.7
Conceded per game	1.3	1.6
Home record	1W 0D 2L	1W 3D 6L
Away record	2W 2D 0L	1W 2D 7L
Clean sheets	29%	15%
Both teams scored	43%	50%
Over 2.5 goals	57%	45%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Académico de Viseu to win	38%	2.63	2.25	-14.6%
A Draw	27%	3.76	3.30	-12.3%
Estoril to win	30%	3.29	2.95	-10.2%
Over 2.5 goals	47%	2.14	1.83	-14.4%
Under 2.5 goals	47%	2.13	1.83	-14.0%
Académico de Viseu -0.5	39%	2.58	2.15	-16.6%
Estoril +0.5	55%	1.83	1.57	-13.9%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	75%	1.33
Over 2.5 goals	50%	2.02
Over 3.5 goals	28%	3.62
Both teams to score	55%	1.83
Académico de Viseu or Draw	68%	1.46
Estoril or Draw	59%	1.69
Académico de Viseu to win and Over 2.5	25%	4.07
Estoril to win and Over 2.5	18%	5.41
Académico de Viseu clean sheet	29%	3.41
Estoril clean sheet	24%	4.18

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.0%

1-09.3%

2-18.8%

0-17.9%

0-07.7%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Académico de Viseu vs Estoril?

Our prediction for Académico de Viseu vs Estoril is Académico de Viseu to win, with a 41% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.33.

What is the score prediction for Académico de Viseu vs Estoril?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 2-1. We expect Académico de Viseu to score 1.4 goals and Estoril 1.2.

Will both teams score in Académico de Viseu vs Estoril?

Both teams to score has a 55% chance. Both sides scored in 3 of Académico de Viseu last 7 games and 10 of Estoril last 20.

How are Académico de Viseu playing?

How are Estoril playing?

What is the best bet for Académico de Viseu vs Estoril?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.33, with a 75% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Académico against Estoril. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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