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Predictions › Australia › Adelaide United FC vs Melbourne Victory
A-LeagueSun 8 Nov, 06:00 Australia time

Adelaide United FC vs Melbourne Victory prediction

Hindmarsh Stadium

Adelaide United FCHome
1.61 : 1.47
expected goals
Melbourne VictoryAway
41%Adelaide Utd
25%Draw
34%Melbourne V
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.22

Quick answer

Our prediction for Adelaide United FC vs Melbourne Victory is Adelaide United FC to win, with a 41% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.22.

Prediction
Adelaide United FC to win
Chance
41%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Adelaide United FC 1.6, Melbourne Victory 1.5
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.22
Both teams to score
62%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
82% chanceFair price 1.222 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Adelaide United FC to win and Over 2.5
27% chanceFair price 3.681 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Adelaide United FC 41%, the draw 25% and Melbourne Victory 34%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Adelaide United FC took 7 points from their last 5 games and Melbourne Victory took 5 from 5. Adelaide United FC come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Adelaide United FC won 4 of their last 10 games at home. Melbourne Victory won 3 of their last 8 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Adelaide United FC score 1.8 goals a game and let in 1.6. Melbourne Victory score 1.9 and let in 1.3. Over 2.5 goals landed in 13 of Adelaide United FC games and 12 of Melbourne Victory games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 3 meetings, Adelaide United FC won 1 and Melbourne Victory won 1 with 1 draw. The last one ended Melbourne Victory 1, Adelaide United FC 1.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 82% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Nothing moved this one. Both teams are rested, form is level and there is no team news we can act on, so the number is what the results and the price say on their own.

Adelaide Utd form D W W L LMelbourne V form D D L W DHome edge in this league 17% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Adelaide United FC vs Melbourne Victory: Adelaide United FC shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Adelaide United FC host Melbourne Victory in the A-League on Sun 8 Nov, 06:00 at Hindmarsh Stadium. Our prediction for Adelaide United FC vs Melbourne Victory is Adelaide United FC to win, with a 41% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.22.

Adelaide United FC form

Adelaide United FC have 8 wins, 8 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 35 goals scored and 31 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, D, W, W, newest first.

Melbourne Victory form

Melbourne Victory have 8 wins, 6 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 39 goals scored and 25 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read D, L, L, W, D, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 3 times in our records. Adelaide United FC won 1, Melbourne Victory won 1 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Melbourne Victory 1, Adelaide United FC 1.

Our call

We expect Adelaide United FC to score about 1.6 goals and Melbourne Victory about 1.5. That points to Adelaide United FC to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.22. Our bold bet is Adelaide United FC to win and Over 2.5 at 3.68.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

Adelaide UtdMelbourne V
Games played2020
Wins88
Draws86
Losses46
Goals scored3539
Goals conceded3125
Scored per game1.81.9
Conceded per game1.61.3
Home record4W 3D 3L5W 4D 3L
Away record4W 5D 1L3W 2D 3L
Clean sheets5%10%
Both teams scored85%70%
Over 2.5 goals65%60%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals82%1.22
Over 2.5 goals59%1.68
Over 3.5 goals37%2.70
Both teams to score62%1.61
Adelaide United FC or Draw66%1.52
Melbourne Victory or Draw59%1.68
Adelaide United FC to win and Over 2.528%3.59
Melbourne Victory to win and Over 2.523%4.31
Adelaide United FC clean sheet23%4.33
Melbourne Victory clean sheet20%5.02

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-111.5%
2-18.8%
1-28.0%
1-06.8%
2-26.4%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Latest news on these teams

All news
A-League

South Melbourne Make History With Australia Cup Penalty Win Over Victory

South Melbourne became the first non A-League club to win the Australia Cup after beating Melbourne Victory on penalties.

10 Oct 2026
A-League

New Melbourne Victory Boss Savarese Ready for Historic Cup Final

New Melbourne Victory coach Giovanni Savarese reflects on his connection to Australian football culture ahead of a historic Australia Cup final.

16 Sept 2026

Questions people ask

Who will win Adelaide United FC vs Melbourne Victory?

Our prediction for Adelaide United FC vs Melbourne Victory is Adelaide United FC to win, with a 41% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.22.

What is the score prediction for Adelaide United FC vs Melbourne Victory?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 1-2. We expect Adelaide United FC to score 1.6 goals and Melbourne Victory 1.5.

Will both teams score in Adelaide United FC vs Melbourne Victory?

Both teams to score has a 62% chance. Both sides scored in 17 of Adelaide United FC last 20 games and 14 of Melbourne Victory last 20.

How are Adelaide United FC playing?

Adelaide United FC have 8 wins, 8 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 35 goals scored and 31 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, D, W, W, newest first.

How are Melbourne Victory playing?

Melbourne Victory have 8 wins, 6 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 39 goals scored and 25 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read D, L, L, W, D, newest first.

What happened when Adelaide United FC and Melbourne Victory last met?

It ended Melbourne Victory 1, Adelaide United FC 1. In the last 3 meetings Adelaide United FC won 1 and Melbourne Victory won 1.

What is the best bet for Adelaide United FC vs Melbourne Victory?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.22, with a 82% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Adelaide Utd against Melbourne V. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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