Predictions › Greece › AEK Athens vs OFI Crete

Greek Super LeagueSat 10 Oct, 16:30 Greece time

AEK Athens vs OFI Crete prediction

OPAP Arena

AEK AthensHome

2.83 : 0.80

expected goals

OFI CreteAway

79%AEK Athens

14%Draw

7%OFI Crete

Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals

1.17

Quick answer

Our prediction for AEK Athens vs OFI Crete is AEK Athens to win, with a 79% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.17.

Prediction: AEK Athens to win
Chance: 79%
Most likely score: 2-0
Expected goals: AEK Athens 2.8, OFI Crete 0.8
Best bet: Over 1.5 goals at 1.17
Both teams to score: 52%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals

86% chanceFair price 1.172 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

AEK Athens to win and both score

35% chanceFair price 2.871 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives AEK Athens 79%, the draw 14% and OFI Crete 7%. The bookmakers agree and make AEK Athens the favourite at 1.20.
2
Recent form
AEK Athens took 11 points from their last 5 games and OFI Crete took 10 from 5. AEK Athens come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
AEK Athens won 8 of their last 10 games at home. OFI Crete won 2 of their last 9 on the road.
4
Goals
AEK Athens score 1.9 goals a game and let in 0.8. OFI Crete score 1.6 and let in 1.4. Over 2.5 goals landed in 11 of AEK Athens games and 10 of OFI Crete games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, AEK Athens won 2 and OFI Crete won 0 with 0 draws. The last one ended AEK Athens 2, OFI Crete 1.
6
The safest bet
Over 1.5 goals has a 86% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

AEK Athensrecent form+4%
OFI Creterecent form+3%

AEK Athens form W D W W DOFI Crete form D W W W LHome edge in this league 25% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

AEK Athens vs OFI Crete: AEK Athens are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

AEK Athens host OFI Crete in the Greek Super League on Sat 10 Oct, 16:30 at OPAP Arena. Our prediction for AEK Athens vs OFI Crete is AEK Athens to win, with a 79% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.17.

AEK Athens form

AEK Athens have 11 wins, 7 draws and 2 losses in their last 20 games, with 37 goals scored and 16 conceded. At home they have 8 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss from 10. Their last 5 results read W, D, W, W, D, newest first.

OFI Crete form

OFI Crete have 9 wins, 4 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 31 goals scored and 28 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read D, W, W, W, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. AEK Athens won 2, OFI Crete won 0 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished AEK Athens 2, OFI Crete 1.

Our call

We expect AEK Athens to score about 2.8 goals and OFI Crete about 0.8. That points to AEK Athens to win, with 2-0 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.17. Our bold bet is AEK Athens to win and both score at 2.87.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	AEK Athens	OFI Crete
Games played	20	20
Wins	11	9
Draws	7	4
Losses	2	7
Goals scored	37	31
Goals conceded	16	28
Scored per game	1.9	1.6
Conceded per game	0.8	1.4
Home record	8W 1D 1L	7W 1D 3L
Away record	3W 6D 1L	2W 3D 4L
Clean sheets	45%	35%
Both teams scored	45%	50%
Over 2.5 goals	55%	50%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
AEK Athens to win	77%	1.30	1.20	-7.8%
A Draw	14%	7.20	6.50	-9.7%
OFI Crete to win	5%	18.35	11.00	-40.1%
Over 3.5 goals	41%	2.44	2.20	-9.9%
Under 3.5 goals	53%	1.89	1.57	-17.1%
AEK Athens -1.5	54%	1.84	1.59	-13.8%
OFI Crete +1.5	39%	2.53	2.10	-17.1%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	88%	1.14
Over 2.5 goals	70%	1.42
Over 3.5 goals	49%	2.03
Both teams to score	52%	1.91
AEK Athens or Draw	93%	1.08
OFI Crete or Draw	21%	4.70
AEK Athens to win and Over 2.5	61%	1.64
OFI Crete to win and Over 2.5	5%	20.56
AEK Athens clean sheet	45%	2.23
OFI Crete clean sheet	6%	16.92

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

2-010.6%

3-010.0%

2-18.5%

3-18.0%

1-07.1%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win AEK Athens vs OFI Crete?

Our prediction for AEK Athens vs OFI Crete is AEK Athens to win, with a 79% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.17.

What is the score prediction for AEK Athens vs OFI Crete?

2-0 is the most likely score, followed by 3-0 and 2-1. We expect AEK Athens to score 2.8 goals and OFI Crete 0.8.

Will both teams score in AEK Athens vs OFI Crete?

Both teams to score has a 52% chance. Both sides scored in 9 of AEK Athens last 20 games and 10 of OFI Crete last 20.

How are AEK Athens playing?

How are OFI Crete playing?

What happened when AEK Athens and OFI Crete last met?

It ended AEK Athens 2, OFI Crete 1. In the last 2 meetings AEK Athens won 2 and OFI Crete won 0.

What is the best bet for AEK Athens vs OFI Crete?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.17, with a 86% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in AEK Athens against OFI Crete. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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