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Predictions › United Kingdom › AFC Bournemouth vs Aston Villa
Carabao CupWed 28 Oct, 19:45 United Kingdom time

AFC Bournemouth vs Aston Villa prediction

Vitality Stadium

AFC BournemouthHome
1.59 : 1.33
expected goals
Aston VillaAway
43%Bournemouth
26%Draw
31%Aston Villa
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1/4

Quick answer

Our prediction for AFC Bournemouth vs Aston Villa is AFC Bournemouth to win, with a 43% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1/4.

Prediction
AFC Bournemouth to win
Chance
43%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
AFC Bournemouth 1.6, Aston Villa 1.3
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1/4
Both teams to score
59%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
79% chanceFair price 1/42 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

AFC Bournemouth to win and Over 2.5
27% chanceFair price 11/41 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives AFC Bournemouth 43%, the draw 26% and Aston Villa 31%. The bookmakers agree and make AFC Bournemouth the favourite at 11/10.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    AFC Bournemouth took 9 points from their last 5 games and Aston Villa took 13 from 5. Aston Villa come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    AFC Bournemouth won 4 of their last 11 games at home. Aston Villa won 6 of their last 11 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    AFC Bournemouth score 1.6 goals a game and let in 1.1. Aston Villa score 2.1 and let in 1.3. Over 2.5 goals landed in 12 of AFC Bournemouth games and 15 of Aston Villa games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, AFC Bournemouth won 0 and Aston Villa won 1 with 1 draw. The last one ended AFC Bournemouth 1, Aston Villa 1.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 79% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Aston Villarecent form+4%
  • Bournemouthrest between games-5%
  • Aston Villarest between games-5%
Bournemouth form D W L L WAston Villa form D W D W WHome edge in this league 5% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

AFC Bournemouth vs Aston Villa: AFC Bournemouth shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

AFC Bournemouth host Aston Villa in the Carabao Cup on Wed 28 Oct, 19:45 at Vitality Stadium. Our prediction for AFC Bournemouth vs Aston Villa is AFC Bournemouth to win, with a 43% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1/4.

AFC Bournemouth form

AFC Bournemouth have 8 wins, 9 draws and 3 losses in their last 20 games, with 32 goals scored and 22 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 6 draws and 1 loss from 11. Their last 5 results read W, W, L, L, W, newest first.

Aston Villa form

Aston Villa have 11 wins, 3 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 43 goals scored and 26 conceded. Away from home they have 6 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, W, D, W, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. AFC Bournemouth won 0, Aston Villa won 1 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished AFC Bournemouth 1, Aston Villa 1.

Our call

We expect AFC Bournemouth to score about 1.6 goals and Aston Villa about 1.3. That points to AFC Bournemouth to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1/4. Our bold bet is AFC Bournemouth to win and Over 2.5 at 11/4.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

BournemouthAston Villa
Games played2020
Wins811
Draws93
Losses36
Goals scored3243
Goals conceded2226
Scored per game1.62.1
Conceded per game1.11.3
Home record4W 6D 1L5W 1D 3L
Away record4W 3D 2L6W 2D 3L
Clean sheets35%30%
Both teams scored60%50%
Over 2.5 goals60%75%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
AFC Bournemouth to win44%5/411/10-7.3%
A Draw25%3/112/5-17.1%
Aston Villa to win30%12/52/1-11.8%
Over 2.5 goals52%10/114/6-13.7%
Under 2.5 goals45%5/411/10-5.9%
AFC Bournemouth -0.545%5/421/20-8.5%
Aston Villa +0.552%10/118/13-15.5%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals80%1/4
Over 2.5 goals56%4/5
Over 3.5 goals33%2/1
Both teams to score59%4/6
AFC Bournemouth or Draw69%4/9
Aston Villa or Draw57%8/11
AFC Bournemouth to win and Over 2.528%5/2
Aston Villa to win and Over 2.520%4/1
AFC Bournemouth clean sheet27%11/4
Aston Villa clean sheet20%4/1

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-112.1%
2-19.1%
1-07.9%
1-27.6%
2-06.9%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Latest news on these teams

All news
Premier League

Unai Emery rescues the historic Spanish club close to his heart

Aston Villa manager Unai Emery and his family stepped in to save Real Union, a historic Spanish club with deep family roots.

2 Oct 2026
Premier League

Big Matches Head Saturday Lineup Before International Break

European leagues prepare for a packed Saturday of matches as Tottenham, Aston Villa, and other top clubs seek big wins before the international break.

19 Sept 2026
Premier League

Iraola Faces Tricky Bournemouth Return as Liverpool Manager

Andoni Iraola prepares to face his former club Bournemouth as unbeaten Liverpool look to exploit extra rest days.

19 Sept 2026

Questions people ask

Who will win AFC Bournemouth vs Aston Villa?

Our prediction for AFC Bournemouth vs Aston Villa is AFC Bournemouth to win, with a 43% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1/4.

What is the score prediction for AFC Bournemouth vs Aston Villa?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 1-0. We expect AFC Bournemouth to score 1.6 goals and Aston Villa 1.3.

Will both teams score in AFC Bournemouth vs Aston Villa?

Both teams to score has a 59% chance. Both sides scored in 12 of AFC Bournemouth last 20 games and 10 of Aston Villa last 20.

How are AFC Bournemouth playing?

AFC Bournemouth have 8 wins, 9 draws and 3 losses in their last 20 games, with 32 goals scored and 22 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 6 draws and 1 loss from 11. Their last 5 results read W, W, L, L, W, newest first.

How are Aston Villa playing?

Aston Villa have 11 wins, 3 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 43 goals scored and 26 conceded. Away from home they have 6 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, W, D, W, W, newest first.

What happened when AFC Bournemouth and Aston Villa last met?

It ended AFC Bournemouth 1, Aston Villa 1. In the last 2 meetings AFC Bournemouth won 0 and Aston Villa won 1.

What is the best bet for AFC Bournemouth vs Aston Villa?

Over 1.5 goals at 1/4, with a 79% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Bournemouth against Aston Villa. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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