Predictions › Europa League › AFC Bournemouth vs SK Sturm Graz

Europa LeagueThu 15 Oct, 19:00 UTC

AFC Bournemouth vs SK Sturm Graz prediction

Vitality Stadium

AFC BournemouthHome

2.49 : 0.98

expected goals

SK Sturm GrazAway

70%Bournemouth

18%Draw

12%Sturm Graz

Eagle safe pickSK Sturm Graz +2.5

1.53

Quick answer

Our prediction for AFC Bournemouth vs SK Sturm Graz is AFC Bournemouth to win, with a 70% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is SK Sturm Graz +2.5 at 1.53.

Prediction: AFC Bournemouth to win
Chance: 70%
Most likely score: 2-0
Expected goals: AFC Bournemouth 2.5, SK Sturm Graz 1.0
Best bet: SK Sturm Graz +2.5 at 1.53
Both teams to score: 58%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

SK Sturm Graz +2.5

62% chancePrice 1.531 unit

⚡

Eagle bold pick

AFC Bournemouth to win and both score

34% chanceFair price 2.911 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives AFC Bournemouth 70%, the draw 18% and SK Sturm Graz 12%. The bookmakers agree and make AFC Bournemouth the favourite at 1.19.
2
Recent form
AFC Bournemouth took 8 points from their last 5 games and SK Sturm Graz took 5 from 5. AFC Bournemouth come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
AFC Bournemouth won 2 of their last 10 games at home. SK Sturm Graz won 4 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
AFC Bournemouth score 1.4 goals a game and let in 0.9. SK Sturm Graz score 1.5 and let in 1.0. Over 2.5 goals landed in 11 of AFC Bournemouth games and 6 of SK Sturm Graz games in that run.
5
The safest bet
SK Sturm Graz +2.5 has a 62% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Bournemouthrecent form+1%
Sturm Grazrecent form-1%

Bournemouth form L W D W DSturm Graz form L D W L DHome edge in this league 24% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

AFC Bournemouth vs SK Sturm Graz: AFC Bournemouth are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

AFC Bournemouth host SK Sturm Graz in the Europa League on Thu 15 Oct, 19:00 at Vitality Stadium. Our prediction for AFC Bournemouth vs SK Sturm Graz is AFC Bournemouth to win, with a 70% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is SK Sturm Graz +2.5 at 1.53.

AFC Bournemouth form

AFC Bournemouth have 7 wins, 11 draws and 2 losses in their last 20 games, with 29 goals scored and 19 conceded. At home they have 2 wins, 7 draws and 1 loss from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, D, W, D, newest first.

SK Sturm Graz form

SK Sturm Graz have 8 wins, 10 draws and 2 losses in their last 20 games, with 30 goals scored and 20 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 4 draws and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, D, W, L, D, newest first.

Our call

We expect AFC Bournemouth to score about 2.5 goals and SK Sturm Graz about 1.0. That points to AFC Bournemouth to win, with 2-0 the most likely score. Our safest bet is SK Sturm Graz +2.5 at 1.53. Our bold bet is AFC Bournemouth to win and both score at 2.91.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Bournemouth	Sturm Graz
Games played	20	20
Wins	7	8
Draws	11	10
Losses	2	2
Goals scored	29	30
Goals conceded	19	20
Scored per game	1.4	1.5
Conceded per game	0.9	1.0
Home record	2W 7D 1L	4W 6D 0L
Away record	5W 4D 1L	4W 4D 2L
Clean sheets	30%	35%
Both teams scored	65%	60%
Over 2.5 goals	55%	30%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
AFC Bournemouth to win	73%	1.37	1.19	-13.3%
A Draw	17%	5.73	7.00	+22.1%
SK Sturm Graz to win	11%	8.90	12.00	+34.8%
Over 3.5 goals	45%	2.22	1.91	-14.2%
Under 3.5 goals	50%	2.02	1.80	-10.8%
AFC Bournemouth -2.5	35%	2.83	2.20	-22.4%
SK Sturm Graz +2.5	62%	1.61	1.53	-5.3%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	87%	1.16
Over 2.5 goals	67%	1.49
Over 3.5 goals	46%	2.19
Both teams to score	58%	1.73
AFC Bournemouth or Draw	88%	1.14
SK Sturm Graz or Draw	30%	3.31
AFC Bournemouth to win and Over 2.5	53%	1.89
SK Sturm Graz to win and Over 2.5	8%	11.94
AFC Bournemouth clean sheet	37%	2.67
SK Sturm Graz clean sheet	8%	12.03

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

2-09.6%

2-19.5%

1-18.1%

3-08.0%

3-17.8%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Latest news on these teams

All news

Premier League

Iraola Faces Tricky Bournemouth Return as Liverpool Manager

Andoni Iraola prepares to face his former club Bournemouth as unbeaten Liverpool look to exploit extra rest days.

19 Sept 2026

Premier League

Manchester United Eye Bournemouth Defender Adrien Truffert

Manchester United are looking at Bournemouth's Adrien Truffert as a potential replacement for Luke Shaw, but he will cost £60 million.

12 Sept 2026

Questions people ask

Who will win AFC Bournemouth vs SK Sturm Graz?

Our prediction for AFC Bournemouth vs SK Sturm Graz is AFC Bournemouth to win, with a 70% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is SK Sturm Graz +2.5 at 1.53.

What is the score prediction for AFC Bournemouth vs SK Sturm Graz?

2-0 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 1-1. We expect AFC Bournemouth to score 2.5 goals and SK Sturm Graz 1.0.

Will both teams score in AFC Bournemouth vs SK Sturm Graz?

Both teams to score has a 58% chance. Both sides scored in 13 of AFC Bournemouth last 20 games and 12 of SK Sturm Graz last 20.

How are AFC Bournemouth playing?

How are SK Sturm Graz playing?

What is the best bet for AFC Bournemouth vs SK Sturm Graz?

SK Sturm Graz +2.5 at 1.53, with a 62% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Bournemouth against Sturm Graz. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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