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Predictions › United Kingdom › AFC Bournemouth vs Sunderland
Premier LeagueSun 18 Oct, 14:00 United Kingdom time

AFC Bournemouth vs Sunderland prediction

Vitality Stadium

AFC BournemouthHome
1.63 : 1.18
expected goals
SunderlandAway
47%Bournemouth
26%Draw
27%Sunderland
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
3/10

Quick answer

Our prediction for AFC Bournemouth vs Sunderland is AFC Bournemouth to win, with a 47% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 3/10.

Prediction
AFC Bournemouth to win
Chance
47%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
AFC Bournemouth 1.6, Sunderland 1.2
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 3/10
Both teams to score
56%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
76% chanceFair price 3/102 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

AFC Bournemouth to win and Over 2.5
30% chanceFair price 12/51 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives AFC Bournemouth 47%, the draw 26% and Sunderland 27%. The bookmakers agree and make AFC Bournemouth the favourite at Evens.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    AFC Bournemouth took 8 points from their last 5 games and Sunderland took 7 from 5. AFC Bournemouth come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    AFC Bournemouth won 2 of their last 10 games at home. Sunderland won 3 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    AFC Bournemouth score 1.4 goals a game and let in 0.9. Sunderland score 1.1 and let in 1.4. Over 2.5 goals landed in 11 of AFC Bournemouth games and 8 of Sunderland games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, AFC Bournemouth won 0 and Sunderland won 1 with 1 draw. The last one ended AFC Bournemouth 1, Sunderland 1.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 76% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Bournemouthrecent form+1%
Bournemouth form L W D W DSunderland form L W L W DHome edge in this league 23% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

AFC Bournemouth vs Sunderland: AFC Bournemouth are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

AFC Bournemouth host Sunderland in the Premier League on Sun 18 Oct, 14:00 at Vitality Stadium. Our prediction for AFC Bournemouth vs Sunderland is AFC Bournemouth to win, with a 47% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 3/10.

AFC Bournemouth form

AFC Bournemouth have 7 wins, 11 draws and 2 losses in their last 20 games, with 29 goals scored and 19 conceded. At home they have 2 wins, 7 draws and 1 loss from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, D, W, D, newest first.

Sunderland form

Sunderland have 8 wins, 4 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 23 goals scored and 29 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, L, W, D, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. AFC Bournemouth won 0, Sunderland won 1 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished AFC Bournemouth 1, Sunderland 1.

Our call

We expect AFC Bournemouth to score about 1.6 goals and Sunderland about 1.2. That points to AFC Bournemouth to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 3/10. Our bold bet is AFC Bournemouth to win and Over 2.5 at 12/5.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

BournemouthSunderland
Games played2020
Wins78
Draws114
Losses28
Goals scored2923
Goals conceded1929
Scored per game1.41.1
Conceded per game0.91.4
Home record2W 7D 1L5W 1D 4L
Away record5W 4D 1L3W 3D 4L
Clean sheets30%30%
Both teams scored65%50%
Over 2.5 goals55%40%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
AFC Bournemouth to win44%5/4Evens-12.1%
A Draw25%3/15/2-10.8%
Sunderland to win27%11/45/2-7.2%
Over 2.5 goals49%21/204/5-13.1%
Under 2.5 goals44%5/410/11-13.9%
AFC Bournemouth -0.544%5/410/11-15.4%
Sunderland +0.549%21/208/11-14.8%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals78%2/7
Over 2.5 goals53%10/11
Over 3.5 goals31%9/4
Both teams to score56%4/5
AFC Bournemouth or Draw73%4/11
Sunderland or Draw53%10/11
AFC Bournemouth to win and Over 2.530%12/5
Sunderland to win and Over 2.516%5/1
AFC Bournemouth clean sheet31%9/4
Sunderland clean sheet20%4/1

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-112.3%
2-19.4%
1-09.1%
2-08.0%
1-26.8%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Latest news on these teams

All news
Premier League

Premier League Panel Backs Controversial Referee Decisions

A Premier League panel has backed refereeing decisions in recent matches involving Manchester City and Everton.

30 Sept 2026
Premier League

Iraola Faces Tricky Bournemouth Return as Liverpool Manager

Andoni Iraola prepares to face his former club Bournemouth as unbeaten Liverpool look to exploit extra rest days.

19 Sept 2026
Premier League

Arteta Fuming Over Penalty Call Despite Arsenal's Two-Goal Win

Mikel Arteta lashed out at officials over a penalty decision against Arsenal, despite his side securing a 2-0 victory over Sunderland.

13 Sept 2026

Questions people ask

Who will win AFC Bournemouth vs Sunderland?

Our prediction for AFC Bournemouth vs Sunderland is AFC Bournemouth to win, with a 47% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 3/10.

What is the score prediction for AFC Bournemouth vs Sunderland?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 1-0. We expect AFC Bournemouth to score 1.6 goals and Sunderland 1.2.

Will both teams score in AFC Bournemouth vs Sunderland?

Both teams to score has a 56% chance. Both sides scored in 13 of AFC Bournemouth last 20 games and 10 of Sunderland last 20.

How are AFC Bournemouth playing?

AFC Bournemouth have 7 wins, 11 draws and 2 losses in their last 20 games, with 29 goals scored and 19 conceded. At home they have 2 wins, 7 draws and 1 loss from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, D, W, D, newest first.

How are Sunderland playing?

Sunderland have 8 wins, 4 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 23 goals scored and 29 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, L, W, D, newest first.

What happened when AFC Bournemouth and Sunderland last met?

It ended AFC Bournemouth 1, Sunderland 1. In the last 2 meetings AFC Bournemouth won 0 and Sunderland won 1.

What is the best bet for AFC Bournemouth vs Sunderland?

Over 1.5 goals at 3/10, with a 76% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Bournemouth against Sunderland. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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