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Predictions › Conference League › AGF vs Braga
Conference LeagueThu 5 Nov, 17:45 UTC

AGF vs Braga prediction

Cepheus Park Randers

AGFHome
1.61 : 1.09
expected goals
BragaAway
49%AGF
26%Draw
25%Braga
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.31

Quick answer

Our prediction for AGF vs Braga is AGF to win, with a 49% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.31.

Prediction
AGF to win
Chance
49%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
AGF 1.6, Braga 1.1
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.31
Both teams to score
54%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
77% chanceFair price 1.312 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

AGF to win and Over 2.5
29% chanceFair price 3.491 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives AGF 49%, the draw 26% and Braga 25%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    AGF took 8 points from their last 5 games and Braga took 3 from 5. AGF come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    AGF won 4 of their last 10 games at home. Braga won 3 of their last 11 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    AGF score 1.5 goals a game and let in 1.4. Braga score 1.4 and let in 1.4. Over 2.5 goals landed in 11 of AGF games and 13 of Braga games in that run.

  5. 5
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 77% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Bragarecent form-3%
  • AGFrest between games-5%
  • Bragarest between games-5%
AGF form D D D L WBraga form D W L L LHome edge in this league 36% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

AGF vs Braga: AGF are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

AGF host Braga in the Conference League on Thu 5 Nov, 17:45 at Cepheus Park Randers. Our prediction for AGF vs Braga is AGF to win, with a 49% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.31.

AGF form

AGF have 5 wins, 9 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 30 goals scored and 27 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 5 draws and 1 loss from 10. Their last 5 results read W, D, D, L, W, newest first.

Braga form

Braga have 7 wins, 6 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 27 goals scored and 29 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, W, L, L, L, newest first.

Our call

We expect AGF to score about 1.6 goals and Braga about 1.1. That points to AGF to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.31. Our bold bet is AGF to win and Over 2.5 at 3.49.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

AGFBraga
Games played2020
Wins57
Draws96
Losses67
Goals scored3027
Goals conceded2729
Scored per game1.51.4
Conceded per game1.41.4
Home record4W 5D 1L4W 3D 2L
Away record1W 4D 5L3W 3D 5L
Clean sheets15%25%
Both teams scored70%65%
Over 2.5 goals55%65%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals76%1.32
Over 2.5 goals51%1.98
Over 3.5 goals29%3.51
Both teams to score54%1.86
AGF or Draw75%1.33
Braga or Draw51%1.96
AGF to win and Over 2.530%3.34
Braga to win and Over 2.514%6.98
AGF clean sheet34%2.96
Braga clean sheet20%5.01

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-112.5%
1-010.2%
2-19.5%
2-08.7%
0-07.4%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win AGF vs Braga?

Our prediction for AGF vs Braga is AGF to win, with a 49% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.31.

What is the score prediction for AGF vs Braga?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 2-1. We expect AGF to score 1.6 goals and Braga 1.1.

Will both teams score in AGF vs Braga?

Both teams to score has a 54% chance. Both sides scored in 14 of AGF last 20 games and 13 of Braga last 20.

How are AGF playing?

AGF have 5 wins, 9 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 30 goals scored and 27 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 5 draws and 1 loss from 10. Their last 5 results read W, D, D, L, W, newest first.

How are Braga playing?

Braga have 7 wins, 6 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 27 goals scored and 29 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, W, L, L, L, newest first.

What is the best bet for AGF vs Braga?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.31, with a 77% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in AGF against Braga. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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