Predictions › Conference League › AGF vs Egnatia

Conference LeagueThu 22 Oct, 19:00 UTC

AGF vs Egnatia prediction

Cepheus Park Randers

AGFHome

1.82 : 1.17

expected goals

EgnatiaAway

52%AGF

24%Draw

24%Egnatia

Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals

1.28

Quick answer

Our prediction for AGF vs Egnatia is AGF to win, with a 52% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.28.

Prediction: AGF to win
Chance: 52%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: AGF 1.8, Egnatia 1.2
Best bet: Over 1.5 goals at 1.28
Both teams to score: 58%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals

78% chanceFair price 1.282 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

AGF to win and Over 2.5

33% chanceFair price 3.001 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives AGF 52%, the draw 24% and Egnatia 24%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.
2
The safest bet
Over 1.5 goals has a 78% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

AGFrecent form-3%
Egnatiarecent form-1%
AGFrest between games-5%

AGF form D D L D LEgnatia form L D W L DHome edge in this league 38% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

AGF vs Egnatia: AGF are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

AGF host Egnatia in the Conference League on Thu 22 Oct, 19:00 at Cepheus Park Randers. Our prediction for AGF vs Egnatia is AGF to win, with a 52% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.28.

AGF form

AGF have 5 wins, 10 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 30 goals scored and 26 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 6 draws and 1 loss from 10. Their last 5 results read W, D, L, D, L, newest first.

Egnatia form

Egnatia have no recent games in our records yet.

Our call

We expect AGF to score about 1.8 goals and Egnatia about 1.2. That points to AGF to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.28. Our bold bet is AGF to win and Over 2.5 at 3.00.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	AGF	Egnatia
Games played	20	n/a
Wins	5	n/a
Draws	10	n/a
Losses	5	n/a
Goals scored	30	n/a
Goals conceded	26	n/a
Scored per game	1.5	n/a
Conceded per game	1.3	n/a
Home record	3W 6D 1L	n/a
Away record	2W 4D 4L	n/a
Clean sheets	20%	n/a
Both teams scored	70%	n/a
Over 2.5 goals	55%	n/a

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	81%	1.24
Over 2.5 goals	57%	1.74
Over 3.5 goals	35%	2.85
Both teams to score	58%	1.71
AGF or Draw	76%	1.31
Egnatia or Draw	48%	2.08
AGF to win and Over 2.5	35%	2.86
Egnatia to win and Over 2.5	15%	6.60
AGF clean sheet	31%	3.23
Egnatia clean sheet	16%	6.15

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-111.4%

2-19.7%

1-08.5%

2-08.3%

1-26.3%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win AGF vs Egnatia?

Our prediction for AGF vs Egnatia is AGF to win, with a 52% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.28.

What is the score prediction for AGF vs Egnatia?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 1-0. We expect AGF to score 1.8 goals and Egnatia 1.2.

Will both teams score in AGF vs Egnatia?

Both teams to score has a 58% chance.

How are AGF playing?

What is the best bet for AGF vs Egnatia?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.28, with a 78% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in AGF against Egnatia. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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