Predictions › Denmark › AGF vs Lyngby Boldklub

Danish SuperligaFri 20 Nov, 18:00 Denmark time

AGF vs Lyngby Boldklub prediction

Vejlby Stadion

AGFHome

2.00 : 1.14

expected goals

Lyngby BoldklubAway

57%AGF

23%Draw

21%Lyngby

Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals

1.21

Quick answer

Our prediction for AGF vs Lyngby Boldklub is AGF to win, with a 57% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.21.

Prediction: AGF to win
Chance: 57%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: AGF 2.0, Lyngby Boldklub 1.1
Best bet: Over 1.5 goals at 1.21
Both teams to score: 60%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals

82% chanceFair price 1.212 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

AGF to win and Over 2.5

39% chanceFair price 2.571 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives AGF 57%, the draw 23% and Lyngby Boldklub 21%. The bookmakers agree and make AGF the favourite at 1.74.
2
Recent form
AGF took 8 points from their last 5 games and Lyngby Boldklub took 4 from 5. AGF come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
AGF won 5 of their last 11 games at home. Lyngby Boldklub won 1 of their last 7 on the road.
4
Goals
AGF score 1.5 goals a game and let in 1.3. Lyngby Boldklub score 1.4 and let in 2.1. Over 2.5 goals landed in 10 of AGF games and 8 of Lyngby Boldklub games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 1 meeting, AGF won 0 and Lyngby Boldklub won 0 with 1 draw. The last one ended Lyngby Boldklub 2, AGF 2.
6
The safest bet
Over 1.5 goals has a 82% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Lyngbyrecent form-3%
AGFrest between games-2%

AGF form D D L W DLyngby form L W L D LHome edge in this league 18% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

AGF vs Lyngby Boldklub: AGF are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

AGF host Lyngby Boldklub in the Danish Superliga on Fri 20 Nov, 18:00 at Vejlby Stadion. Our prediction for AGF vs Lyngby Boldklub is AGF to win, with a 57% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.21.

AGF form

AGF have 6 wins, 8 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 30 goals scored and 26 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 5 draws and 1 loss from 11. Their last 5 results read W, D, L, W, D, newest first.

Lyngby Boldklub form

Lyngby Boldklub have 2 wins, 5 draws and 7 losses in their last 14 games, with 19 goals scored and 29 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 0 draws and 6 losses from 7. Their last 5 results read L, W, L, D, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. AGF won 0, Lyngby Boldklub won 0 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Lyngby Boldklub 2, AGF 2.

Our call

We expect AGF to score about 2.0 goals and Lyngby Boldklub about 1.1. That points to AGF to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.21. Our bold bet is AGF to win and Over 2.5 at 2.57.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	AGF	Lyngby
Games played	20	14
Wins	6	2
Draws	8	5
Losses	6	7
Goals scored	30	19
Goals conceded	26	29
Scored per game	1.5	1.4
Conceded per game	1.3	2.1
Home record	5W 5D 1L	1W 5D 1L
Away record	1W 3D 5L	1W 0D 6L
Clean sheets	20%	7%
Both teams scored	60%	71%
Over 2.5 goals	50%	57%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
AGF to win	51%	1.94	1.74	-10.4%
A Draw	22%	4.55	3.90	-14.3%
Lyngby Boldklub to win	20%	5.01	4.10	-18.1%
Over 2.5 goals	54%	1.86	1.56	-16.5%
Under 2.5 goals	39%	2.55	2.25	-11.6%
AGF -0.5	50%	1.99	1.67	-16.0%
Lyngby Boldklub +0.5	43%	2.34	2.00	-14.5%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	83%	1.21
Over 2.5 goals	61%	1.64
Over 3.5 goals	38%	2.60
Both teams to score	60%	1.68
AGF or Draw	79%	1.26
Lyngby Boldklub or Draw	43%	2.30
AGF to win and Over 2.5	40%	2.50
Lyngby Boldklub to win and Over 2.5	14%	7.37
AGF clean sheet	32%	3.14
Lyngby Boldklub clean sheet	14%	7.39

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-110.5%

2-19.9%

2-08.6%

1-08.0%

3-16.6%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win AGF vs Lyngby Boldklub?

Our prediction for AGF vs Lyngby Boldklub is AGF to win, with a 57% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.21.

What is the score prediction for AGF vs Lyngby Boldklub?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 2-0. We expect AGF to score 2.0 goals and Lyngby Boldklub 1.1.

Will both teams score in AGF vs Lyngby Boldklub?

Both teams to score has a 60% chance. Both sides scored in 12 of AGF last 20 games and 10 of Lyngby Boldklub last 14.

How are AGF playing?

How are Lyngby Boldklub playing?

What happened when AGF and Lyngby Boldklub last met?

It ended Lyngby Boldklub 2, AGF 2. In the last 1 meeting AGF won 0 and Lyngby Boldklub won 0.

What is the best bet for AGF vs Lyngby Boldklub?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.21, with a 82% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in AGF against Lyngby. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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