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Predictions › Colombia › Águilas Doradas vs Deportes Tolima
Colombian Primera ASun 18 Oct, 19:00 Colombia time

Águilas Doradas vs Deportes Tolima prediction

Atanasio Girardot

Águilas DoradasHome
1.20 : 1.20
expected goals
Deportes TolimaAway
35%Águilas Doradas
29%Draw
35%Tolima
Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals
1.31

Quick answer

Our prediction for Águilas Doradas vs Deportes Tolima is Águilas Doradas to win, with a 35% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.31.

Prediction
Águilas Doradas to win
Chance
35%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Águilas Doradas 1.2, Deportes Tolima 1.2
Best bet
Under 3.5 goals at 1.31
Both teams to score
50%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals
76% chanceFair price 1.312 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1
14% chanceFair price 7.221 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Águilas Doradas 35%, the draw 29% and Deportes Tolima 35%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Águilas Doradas took 4 points from their last 5 games and Deportes Tolima took 3 from 5. Águilas Doradas come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Águilas Doradas won 4 of their last 11 games at home. Deportes Tolima won 3 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Águilas Doradas score 1.1 goals a game and let in 1.5. Deportes Tolima score 1.0 and let in 1.2. Over 2.5 goals landed in 10 of Águilas Doradas games and 10 of Deportes Tolima games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Águilas Doradas won 0 and Deportes Tolima won 2 with 0 draws. The last one ended Deportes Tolima 4, Águilas Doradas 1.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Under 3.5 goals has a 76% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Águilas Doradasrecent form-3%
  • Tolimarecent form-3%
Águilas Doradas form W L L D LTolima form D D D L LHome edge in this league 39% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Águilas Doradas vs Deportes Tolima: Águilas Doradas shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Águilas Doradas host Deportes Tolima in the Colombian Primera A on Sun 18 Oct, 19:00 at Atanasio Girardot. Our prediction for Águilas Doradas vs Deportes Tolima is Águilas Doradas to win, with a 35% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.31.

Águilas Doradas form

Águilas Doradas have 6 wins, 7 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 23 goals scored and 30 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 5 draws and 2 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, D, L, newest first.

Deportes Tolima form

Deportes Tolima have 7 wins, 5 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 20 goals scored and 24 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, D, D, L, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Águilas Doradas won 0, Deportes Tolima won 2 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Deportes Tolima 4, Águilas Doradas 1.

Our call

We expect Águilas Doradas to score about 1.2 goals and Deportes Tolima about 1.2. That points to Águilas Doradas to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.31. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7.22.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

Águilas DoradasTolima
Games played2020
Wins67
Draws75
Losses78
Goals scored2320
Goals conceded3024
Scored per game1.11.0
Conceded per game1.51.2
Home record4W 5D 2L4W 3D 3L
Away record2W 2D 5L3W 2D 5L
Clean sheets10%25%
Both teams scored60%50%
Over 2.5 goals50%50%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals70%1.43
Over 2.5 goals43%2.33
Over 3.5 goals22%4.53
Both teams to score50%2.02
Águilas Doradas or Draw65%1.55
Deportes Tolima or Draw65%1.55
Águilas Doradas to win and Over 2.519%5.32
Deportes Tolima to win and Over 2.519%5.36
Águilas Doradas clean sheet30%3.31
Deportes Tolima clean sheet30%3.32

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.9%
1-010.1%
0-110.1%
0-09.9%
2-17.8%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Águilas Doradas vs Deportes Tolima?

Our prediction for Águilas Doradas vs Deportes Tolima is Águilas Doradas to win, with a 35% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.31.

What is the score prediction for Águilas Doradas vs Deportes Tolima?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 0-1. We expect Águilas Doradas to score 1.2 goals and Deportes Tolima 1.2.

Will both teams score in Águilas Doradas vs Deportes Tolima?

Both teams to score has a 50% chance. Both sides scored in 12 of Águilas Doradas last 20 games and 10 of Deportes Tolima last 20.

How are Águilas Doradas playing?

Águilas Doradas have 6 wins, 7 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 23 goals scored and 30 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 5 draws and 2 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, D, L, newest first.

How are Deportes Tolima playing?

Deportes Tolima have 7 wins, 5 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 20 goals scored and 24 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, D, D, L, L, newest first.

What happened when Águilas Doradas and Deportes Tolima last met?

It ended Deportes Tolima 4, Águilas Doradas 1. In the last 2 meetings Águilas Doradas won 0 and Deportes Tolima won 2.

What is the best bet for Águilas Doradas vs Deportes Tolima?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.31, with a 76% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Águilas Doradas against Tolima. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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