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Predictions › Colombia › Águilas Doradas vs Independiente Medellín
Colombian Primera ASun 8 Nov, 20:30 Colombia time

Águilas Doradas vs Independiente Medellín prediction

Estadio Cincuentenario

Águilas DoradasHome
1.64 : 1.48
expected goals
Independiente MedellínAway
41%Águilas Doradas
25%Draw
34%Ind. Medellín
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.21

Quick answer

Our prediction for Águilas Doradas vs Independiente Medellín is Águilas Doradas to win, with a 41% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.21.

Prediction
Águilas Doradas to win
Chance
41%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Águilas Doradas 1.6, Independiente Medellín 1.5
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.21
Both teams to score
63%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
82% chanceFair price 1.212 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Águilas Doradas to win and Over 2.5
28% chanceFair price 3.571 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Águilas Doradas 41%, the draw 25% and Independiente Medellín 34%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Águilas Doradas took 8 points from their last 5 games and Independiente Medellín took 3 from 5. Águilas Doradas come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Águilas Doradas won 3 of their last 9 games at home. Independiente Medellín won 4 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Águilas Doradas score 1.3 goals a game and let in 1.4. Independiente Medellín score 1.4 and let in 1.6. Over 2.5 goals landed in 10 of Águilas Doradas games and 14 of Independiente Medellín games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Águilas Doradas won 2 and Independiente Medellín won 0 with 0 draws. The last one ended Independiente Medellín 1, Águilas Doradas 2.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 82% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Ind. Medellínrecent form-3%
  • Águilas Doradasrest between games-2%
  • Ind. Medellínrest between games-5%
Águilas Doradas form D L W D DInd. Medellín form D L L L WHome edge in this league 39% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Águilas Doradas vs Independiente Medellín: Águilas Doradas shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Águilas Doradas host Independiente Medellín in the Colombian Primera A on Sun 8 Nov, 20:30 at Estadio Cincuentenario. Our prediction for Águilas Doradas vs Independiente Medellín is Águilas Doradas to win, with a 41% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.21.

Águilas Doradas form

Águilas Doradas have 6 wins, 8 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 25 goals scored and 28 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 5 draws and 1 loss from 9. Their last 5 results read W, L, W, D, D, newest first.

Independiente Medellín form

Independiente Medellín have 8 wins, 2 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 27 goals scored and 32 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 1 draw and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, W, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Águilas Doradas won 2, Independiente Medellín won 0 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Independiente Medellín 1, Águilas Doradas 2.

Our call

We expect Águilas Doradas to score about 1.6 goals and Independiente Medellín about 1.5. That points to Águilas Doradas to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.21. Our bold bet is Águilas Doradas to win and Over 2.5 at 3.57.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

Águilas DoradasInd. Medellín
Games played2020
Wins68
Draws82
Losses610
Goals scored2527
Goals conceded2832
Scored per game1.31.4
Conceded per game1.41.6
Home record3W 5D 1L4W 1D 5L
Away record3W 3D 5L4W 1D 5L
Clean sheets10%10%
Both teams scored60%60%
Over 2.5 goals50%70%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals82%1.21
Over 2.5 goals60%1.66
Over 3.5 goals38%2.64
Both teams to score63%1.59
Águilas Doradas or Draw66%1.51
Independiente Medellín or Draw59%1.70
Águilas Doradas to win and Over 2.528%3.51
Independiente Medellín to win and Over 2.523%4.30
Águilas Doradas clean sheet23%4.38
Independiente Medellín clean sheet19%5.16

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-111.4%
2-18.8%
1-27.9%
1-06.6%
2-26.5%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Águilas Doradas vs Independiente Medellín?

Our prediction for Águilas Doradas vs Independiente Medellín is Águilas Doradas to win, with a 41% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.21.

What is the score prediction for Águilas Doradas vs Independiente Medellín?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 1-2. We expect Águilas Doradas to score 1.6 goals and Independiente Medellín 1.5.

Will both teams score in Águilas Doradas vs Independiente Medellín?

Both teams to score has a 63% chance. Both sides scored in 12 of Águilas Doradas last 20 games and 12 of Independiente Medellín last 20.

How are Águilas Doradas playing?

Águilas Doradas have 6 wins, 8 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 25 goals scored and 28 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 5 draws and 1 loss from 9. Their last 5 results read W, L, W, D, D, newest first.

How are Independiente Medellín playing?

Independiente Medellín have 8 wins, 2 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 27 goals scored and 32 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 1 draw and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, W, L, newest first.

What happened when Águilas Doradas and Independiente Medellín last met?

It ended Independiente Medellín 1, Águilas Doradas 2. In the last 2 meetings Águilas Doradas won 2 and Independiente Medellín won 0.

What is the best bet for Águilas Doradas vs Independiente Medellín?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.21, with a 82% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Águilas Doradas against Ind. Medellín. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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