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Predictions › Sweden › AIK vs IF Elfsborg
AllsvenskanTue 27 Oct, 18:00 Sweden time

AIK vs IF Elfsborg prediction

Friends Arena

AIKHome
1.25 : 1.81
expected goals
IF ElfsborgAway
26%AIK
24%Draw
50%Elfsborg
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.24

Quick answer

Our prediction for AIK vs IF Elfsborg is IF Elfsborg to win, with a 50% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.24.

Prediction
IF Elfsborg to win
Chance
50%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
AIK 1.3, IF Elfsborg 1.8
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.24
Both teams to score
60%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
80% chanceFair price 1.242 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

IF Elfsborg to win and Over 2.5
34% chanceFair price 2.971 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives AIK 26%, the draw 24% and IF Elfsborg 50%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    AIK took 2 points from their last 5 games and IF Elfsborg took 12 from 5. IF Elfsborg come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    AIK won 2 of their last 10 games at home. IF Elfsborg won 3 of their last 9 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    AIK score 1.6 goals a game and let in 1.9. IF Elfsborg score 1.4 and let in 0.9. Over 2.5 goals landed in 13 of AIK games and 9 of IF Elfsborg games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, AIK won 1 and IF Elfsborg won 0 with 1 draw. The last one ended IF Elfsborg 1, AIK 1.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 80% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • AIKrecent form-4%
  • Elfsborgrecent form+3%
  • AIKrest between games-5%
AIK form D L L D LElfsborg form D W W L WHome edge in this league 20% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

AIK vs IF Elfsborg: IF Elfsborg are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

AIK host IF Elfsborg in the Allsvenskan on Tue 27 Oct, 18:00 at Friends Arena. Our prediction for AIK vs IF Elfsborg is IF Elfsborg to win, with a 50% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.24.

AIK form

AIK have 7 wins, 6 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 32 goals scored and 37 conceded. At home they have 2 wins, 2 draws and 6 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, L, L, D, L, newest first.

IF Elfsborg form

IF Elfsborg have 9 wins, 6 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 28 goals scored and 18 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, L, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. AIK won 1, IF Elfsborg won 0 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished IF Elfsborg 1, AIK 1.

Our call

We expect AIK to score about 1.3 goals and IF Elfsborg about 1.8. That points to IF Elfsborg to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.24. Our bold bet is IF Elfsborg to win and Over 2.5 at 2.97.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

AIKElfsborg
Games played2020
Wins79
Draws66
Losses75
Goals scored3228
Goals conceded3718
Scored per game1.61.4
Conceded per game1.90.9
Home record2W 2D 6L6W 3D 2L
Away record5W 4D 1L3W 3D 3L
Clean sheets15%35%
Both teams scored70%60%
Over 2.5 goals65%45%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals82%1.23
Over 2.5 goals59%1.70
Over 3.5 goals37%2.74
Both teams to score60%1.66
AIK or Draw50%2.00
IF Elfsborg or Draw74%1.35
AIK to win and Over 2.517%5.93
IF Elfsborg to win and Over 2.534%2.91
AIK clean sheet16%6.10
IF Elfsborg clean sheet29%3.48

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-111.3%
1-29.6%
0-17.9%
0-27.7%
2-16.6%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win AIK vs IF Elfsborg?

Our prediction for AIK vs IF Elfsborg is IF Elfsborg to win, with a 50% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.24.

What is the score prediction for AIK vs IF Elfsborg?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-2 and 0-1. We expect AIK to score 1.3 goals and IF Elfsborg 1.8.

Will both teams score in AIK vs IF Elfsborg?

Both teams to score has a 60% chance. Both sides scored in 14 of AIK last 20 games and 12 of IF Elfsborg last 20.

How are AIK playing?

AIK have 7 wins, 6 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 32 goals scored and 37 conceded. At home they have 2 wins, 2 draws and 6 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, L, L, D, L, newest first.

How are IF Elfsborg playing?

IF Elfsborg have 9 wins, 6 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 28 goals scored and 18 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, L, W, newest first.

What happened when AIK and IF Elfsborg last met?

It ended IF Elfsborg 1, AIK 1. In the last 2 meetings AIK won 1 and IF Elfsborg won 0.

What is the best bet for AIK vs IF Elfsborg?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.24, with a 80% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in AIK against Elfsborg. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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