Predictions › Sweden › AIK vs Mjällby AIF

AllsvenskanWed 16 Sept, 17:00 Sweden time

AIK vs Mjällby AIF prediction

Friends Arena

AIKHome

1.56 : 1.42

expected goals

Mjällby AIFAway

40%AIK

26%Draw

34%Mjällby

Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals

1.20

Quick answer

Our prediction for AIK vs Mjällby AIF is AIK to win, with a 40% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.20.

Prediction: AIK to win
Chance: 40%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: AIK 1.6, Mjällby AIF 1.4
Best bet: Over 1.5 goals at 1.20
Both teams to score: 61%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals

84% chanceFair price 1.202 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Mjällby AIF to win

32% chancePrice 3.151 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives AIK 40%, the draw 26% and Mjällby AIF 34%. The bookmakers agree and make AIK the favourite at 2.15.
2
Recent form
AIK took 10 points from their last 5 games and Mjällby AIF took 4 from 5. AIK come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
AIK won 4 of their last 9 games at home. Mjällby AIF won 2 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
AIK score 1.4 goals a game and let in 1.6. Mjällby AIF score 1.3 and let in 1.7. Over 2.5 goals landed in 13 of AIK games and 10 of Mjällby AIF games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 1 meeting, AIK won 1 and Mjällby AIF won 0 with 0 draws. The last one ended Mjällby AIF 1, AIK 2.
6
The safest bet
Over 1.5 goals has a 84% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

AIKrecent form+3%
Mjällbyrecent form-6%
AIKrest between games-5%
Mjällbyrest between games-5%

AIK form L D W W WMjällby form D L L L LHome edge in this league 20% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

AIK vs Mjällby AIF: AIK shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

AIK host Mjällby AIF in the Allsvenskan on Wed 16 Sept, 17:00 at Friends Arena. Our prediction for AIK vs Mjällby AIF is AIK to win, with a 40% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.20.

AIK form

AIK have 9 wins, 5 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 29 goals scored and 31 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 0 draws and 5 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, D, W, W, W, newest first.

Mjällby AIF form

Mjällby AIF have 5 wins, 6 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 26 goals scored and 34 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 5 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, L, L, L, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. AIK won 1, Mjällby AIF won 0 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Mjällby AIF 1, AIK 2.

Our call

We expect AIK to score about 1.6 goals and Mjällby AIF about 1.4. That points to AIK to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.20. Our bold bet is Mjällby AIF to win at 3.15.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	AIK	Mjällby
Games played	20	20
Wins	9	5
Draws	5	6
Losses	6	9
Goals scored	29	26
Goals conceded	31	34
Scored per game	1.4	1.3
Conceded per game	1.6	1.7
Home record	4W 0D 5L	3W 1D 6L
Away record	5W 5D 1L	2W 5D 3L
Clean sheets	20%	20%
Both teams scored	65%	50%
Over 2.5 goals	65%	50%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
AIK to win	37%	2.71	2.15	-20.7%
A Draw	24%	4.14	3.45	-16.6%
Mjällby AIF to win	32%	3.15	3.15	-0.1%
Over 2.5 goals	56%	1.79	1.67	-6.8%
Under 2.5 goals	42%	2.40	2.05	-14.7%
AIK -0.5	40%	2.49	2.05	-17.6%
Mjällby AIF +0.5	57%	1.74	1.63	-6.8%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	81%	1.24
Over 2.5 goals	57%	1.74
Over 3.5 goals	35%	2.86
Both teams to score	61%	1.65
AIK or Draw	66%	1.52
Mjällby AIF or Draw	60%	1.68
AIK to win and Over 2.5	27%	3.72
Mjällby AIF to win and Over 2.5	22%	4.46
AIK clean sheet	24%	4.14
Mjällby AIF clean sheet	21%	4.78

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-111.9%

2-18.8%

1-28.0%

1-07.2%

0-16.5%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win AIK vs Mjällby AIF?

Our prediction for AIK vs Mjällby AIF is AIK to win, with a 40% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.20.

What is the score prediction for AIK vs Mjällby AIF?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 1-2. We expect AIK to score 1.6 goals and Mjällby AIF 1.4.

Will both teams score in AIK vs Mjällby AIF?

Both teams to score has a 61% chance. Both sides scored in 13 of AIK last 20 games and 10 of Mjällby AIF last 20.

How are AIK playing?

How are Mjällby AIF playing?

What happened when AIK and Mjällby AIF last met?

It ended Mjällby AIF 1, AIK 2. In the last 1 meeting AIK won 1 and Mjällby AIF won 0.

What is the best bet for AIK vs Mjällby AIF?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.20, with a 84% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in AIK against Mjällby. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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