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Predictions › United States › Air Force Falcons vs Army Black Knights
College FootballSat 7 Nov, 19:30 United States time

Air Force Falcons vs Army Black Knights prediction

Michie Stadium

Air Force FalconsAway
23.1 : 29.4
projected points
Army Black KnightsHome
36%Air Force
64%Army
Eagle safe pickArmy +4
-308

Quick answer

Our prediction for Air Force Falcons vs Army Black Knights is Army Black Knights to win, with a 64% chance. We project Air Force Falcons 23.1 and Army Black Knights 29.4. Our best bet is Army +4 at -308.

Prediction
Army Black Knights to win
Chance
64%
Projected score
Air Force Falcons 23, Army Black Knights 29
Projected total
52.5 points
Best bet
Army +4 at -308

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One injury, one turnover or one late score can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Army +4
75% chanceFair price -3082 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Air Force to win
34% chancePrice +1801 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Army Black Knights 64% and Air Force Falcons 36%. The bookmakers agree and make Army Black Knights the favourite at -218.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Army Black Knights won 4 of their last 5 and Air Force Falcons won 4 of their last 5. Both sides come in with a similar run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Army Black Knights won 6 of their last 9 games at home. Air Force Falcons won 4 of their last 9 on the road.

  4. 4
    Scoring

    Army Black Knights score 28.1 points a game and let in 21.4. Air Force Falcons score 28.2 and let in 27.6. Their recent games average 49.5 and 55.8 points in total, and the market line is 52.5.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 1 meeting, Army Black Knights won 1 and Air Force Falcons won 0. The last one ended Air Force Falcons 17, Army Black Knights 20.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Army +4 has a 75% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Nothing moved this one. Both teams are rested, form is level and there is no team news we can act on, so the number is what the results and the price say on their own.

Corrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Air Force Falcons vs Army Black Knights: Army Black Knights are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Army Black Knights host Air Force Falcons in the College Football on Sat 7 Nov, 19:30 at Michie Stadium. Our prediction for Air Force Falcons vs Army Black Knights is Army Black Knights to win, with a 64% chance. We project Air Force Falcons 23.1 and Army Black Knights 29.4. Our best bet is Army +4 at -308.

Army Black Knights form

Army Black Knights have 11 wins and 7 losses in their last 18 games, with 506 points scored and 385 conceded. At home they have 6 wins and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, L, W, newest first.

Air Force Falcons form

Air Force Falcons have 8 wins and 10 losses in their last 18 games, with 508 points scored and 497 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins and 5 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, W, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Army Black Knights won 1, Air Force Falcons won 0. Last time out it finished Air Force Falcons 17, Army Black Knights 20.

Our call

We expect Air Force Falcons to score about 23.1 points and Army Black Knights about 29.4. That points to Army Black Knights to win. Our safest bet is Army +4 at -308. Our bold bet is Air Force to win at +180.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 18 games in all competitions.

ArmyAir Force
Games played1818
Wins118
Losses710
Points scored506508
Points conceded385497
Scored per game28.128.2
Conceded per game21.427.6
Home record6W 3L4W 5L
Away record5W 4L4W 5L

Note: W is a win and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
Army to win64%-176-218-6.9%
Air Force to win34%+198+180-6.0%
Army -647%+111-110-9.4%
Air Force +647%+115-110-11.2%
Over 52.5 points47%+112-110-10.1%
Under 52.5 points47%+113-110-10.4%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Spread and total at every line

Army spreadCoversFair
Army -13.533%+207
Army -9.542%+138
Army -6.549%+102
Army -3.557%-132
Army +0.566%-197
Total pointsOverUnder
45.567%33%
49.558%42%
52.550%50%
55.543%57%
59.533%67%

Note: A spread gives one team a head start. Army +3.5 wins if Army win or lose by 3 or fewer. If the result lands exactly on the line, your stake comes back.

Questions people ask

Who will win Air Force Falcons vs Army Black Knights?

Our prediction for Air Force Falcons vs Army Black Knights is Army Black Knights to win, with a 64% chance. We project Air Force Falcons 23.1 and Army Black Knights 29.4. Our best bet is Army +4 at -308.

What is the projected score for Air Force Falcons vs Army Black Knights?

We project Air Force Falcons 23.1 and Army Black Knights 29.4, about 52.5 points in total.

How are Army Black Knights playing?

Army Black Knights have 11 wins and 7 losses in their last 18 games, with 506 points scored and 385 conceded. At home they have 6 wins and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, L, W, newest first.

How are Air Force Falcons playing?

Air Force Falcons have 8 wins and 10 losses in their last 18 games, with 508 points scored and 497 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins and 5 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, W, W, newest first.

What happened when Army Black Knights and Air Force Falcons last met?

It ended Air Force Falcons 17, Army Black Knights 20. In the last 1 meeting Army Black Knights won 1 and Air Force Falcons won 0.

What is the best bet for Air Force Falcons vs Army Black Knights?

Army +4 at -308, with a 75% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Army against Air Force. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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